S&P Wave & Cycle Analysis 2009-2014
In the post "Market prediction 2009-2014?" 17 months ago I pointed out the possibility of S&P reaching the 1650 target. As we all know the target has been surpassed. Here I update the analysis with in dept detailed wave counting and projections.
How did I set this target more than year ago? The 1.618x projection of the third wave (872.81 to 1370.49) was level of 1678. As described earlier in the previous posts (Market cycle and wave projecting part 1) this method proved to be relatively accurate in market peak setting. To be precise here I have counted the waves in details. Thus projecting the 3rd wave (from 1627.59 to 1806.55) gives target of area of 1806-1917 for the final wave 5, which coincides with the bull market peak. After recent sell off there is high probability that "the big" wave 5 of the bull market started 2009 has been completed.
What's next? The most worrying thing, however, is that not only Elliot wave analysis flashes bear signal. The market cycle theory confirms that as well. Historically the average bull phase lasts on average 5 years. Currently we are at the fifth year of the bull market, so stay focused.
Best
CH
How did I set this target more than year ago? The 1.618x projection of the third wave (872.81 to 1370.49) was level of 1678. As described earlier in the previous posts (Market cycle and wave projecting part 1) this method proved to be relatively accurate in market peak setting. To be precise here I have counted the waves in details. Thus projecting the 3rd wave (from 1627.59 to 1806.55) gives target of area of 1806-1917 for the final wave 5, which coincides with the bull market peak. After recent sell off there is high probability that "the big" wave 5 of the bull market started 2009 has been completed.
What's next? The most worrying thing, however, is that not only Elliot wave analysis flashes bear signal. The market cycle theory confirms that as well. Historically the average bull phase lasts on average 5 years. Currently we are at the fifth year of the bull market, so stay focused.
Best
CH
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