SPX: Long term trends active right now
Updated
I made this chart for a student of mine, but I think it is a good idea to remind people of what the technical charts show in the long term here. The level of pessimism regarding being long stocks makes it clear that there is an uptrend at the moment. It can get you ridiculed, to mention in public that you buy stocks. People shy away from it, everyone is either in cash, or buying gold, or something else. Investing in start ups, you name it...anything BUT stocks.
We have both a yearly and a quarterly signal active at the moment. The quarterly calls for a rally to 2621.8 by Q4 2018 at least, and potential for a max target of around 3230. The yearly chart's target is 2975.7 by 2021, give or take. Keep this in mind, when blaming Trump for 'the Trump trade' or when your VIX etf longs result in catastrophic loss...you're just not trading with the trend. Big volatility spikes are an opportunity to join this trend.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
We have both a yearly and a quarterly signal active at the moment. The quarterly calls for a rally to 2621.8 by Q4 2018 at least, and potential for a max target of around 3230. The yearly chart's target is 2975.7 by 2021, give or take. Keep this in mind, when blaming Trump for 'the Trump trade' or when your VIX etf longs result in catastrophic loss...you're just not trading with the trend. Big volatility spikes are an opportunity to join this trend.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Note
Still acting strong...Note
Interesting to confront the following timeframe signals: yearly, quarterly, 2 month, weekly, daily. We hit one of the 2 month tf targets, but we still have time to potentially continue the rally Weekly hit target #1, might hit target #2 shown in the chart above...Daily exhausted time and price for the last rally yesterday, VIX and SKEW alert us to hedge buying gold soon.
Long term rally might remain valid, and maybe this 3 month timeframe target that aligns with my weekly target of 2605, still weeks away of being reached, is the one that pans out...
To be safe, I'll start hedging again, ideally if we get a drop in gold after NFP, and retest monthly support around 1250-1261.
Note
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