I want to preface this by saying I'm a TA and this is just dinner table chat as far as I am concerned.
I've no interest what-so-ever in why a market moves. All the money is made based on how it moves- and the TA is working great for that.
Just sharing a theory that is floating about (It's not mine).
The idea is Trump is intentionally crashing the markets in an attempt to reduce the debt burden on the US.
This would work by this sequence of events;
1 - Markets crash. Making people who care about their money anxious and less eager to take risk in the stocks (etc) markets.
2 - This money moves to bonds. Pushing bond prices up. Rising bond prices push interest rates down. So crashing the econ can lead to lower interest rates.
3 - At a lower interest rate (say 2%) the US can refi its debt.
Inside of this theory, everything we're seeing is part of a calculated plan to, literally, force stocks lower.
I've no interest what-so-ever in why a market moves. All the money is made based on how it moves- and the TA is working great for that.
Just sharing a theory that is floating about (It's not mine).
The idea is Trump is intentionally crashing the markets in an attempt to reduce the debt burden on the US.
This would work by this sequence of events;
1 - Markets crash. Making people who care about their money anxious and less eager to take risk in the stocks (etc) markets.
2 - This money moves to bonds. Pushing bond prices up. Rising bond prices push interest rates down. So crashing the econ can lead to lower interest rates.
3 - At a lower interest rate (say 2%) the US can refi its debt.
Inside of this theory, everything we're seeing is part of a calculated plan to, literally, force stocks lower.
Note
If that was true, we'd be in market conditions entirely unlike anything you've seen before. Because the powers that be have always had an interest in pushing the market higher.
Plunge protection.
"Eeek ... it looks bad. Let's rescue it".
That is what the stability was built on.
That would now be gone - and actually the powers that be would be working the opposite way.
Meaning everything you think you know, is no longer true.
Note
We would be inside of the very worst conditions EVER to be in risk markets. Where it's the stated goal of those who can move the market to drive it down. And at the exact same time, we'd have max number of people all in on the most speculative and volatile of assets.
We would be heading into a real shit show.
Note
The people I personally know floating this theory ... are not dumb. They get a LOT of things right about markets.
Note
I'll take it further. Although I am uncaring and agnostic about when it comes to making my trade plans, the credibility of the people making these statements in my circles is so high that I'd assume they have a very high chance of being right.They are people who are very consistently getting things like this right.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.