SPX - Bears not out of the woods just yet for SP:SPX by the_sunship

SPX - Bears not out of the woods just yet

A final move up this week is still possible. I'd like to bring your attention to a few details I didn't pay attention to as much as I should have on Friday. Keep in mind the UAW strike could end anytime and FOMC (with a possible rate hike pause) is Wednesday.

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LOoking at ES we have a gap that has not been filled all the way up at 4600 - on this chart. Futures are priced differently from cash. There is a gap below which I think will get filled first. Whether they rally it at all (or that high) is hard to tell.

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Good morning, we're making our way down to 4400, but a bounce today is likely. If not, I will update.

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the Dollar is close to resistance here with daily bear divergences.

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It's possible IF this is an ABC, that the C down is finished already and we don't reach 4400 at all. Hard to say at this point, Right now I'm looking this as a bounce before more downside, but if they were to get over 4495, it's likely going to around 4600 (gap area mentioned in video)

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18ma on SPX cash is around 4465 - watch to see if they get above and hold that level for the day. If so, it's turning bullish. 18ma also an excellent area to try and short it as it's usually tested before more downside.

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impulse looks done - triangle for 4 .

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test of daily 18ma, objective short entry, but I'm uncertain if they will drop from here tbh

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Another leg down is possible now, the smaller time frames are reset enough. but I'm still thinking the target is 4400....

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IWM also near daily BB support - it's a level I think will hold for now.

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Good morning, just a consolidation overnight - so we should see more downside today. We're still below the 18ma daily so bias is down. If we go up it will still look like consolidation but I will update some targets to watch. Housing starts numbers are at 8:30am, and from what I'm reading it may be bearish for the general market. us.econoday.com/byweek.asp

SPX cash -

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if we go higher, I'm looking for something like this - SPX futures.

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this is possible, but if it happens, it's worse for bulls than getting down to 4k before FOMC tomorrow.

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if we rally up from here into FOMC, this is what the larger idea will look like - no rally to 4600 IMO.

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weekly 18ma reached on SPX cash, daily BB near 4400 still. No rally yet, so the original idea to 4400 is still possible. Closing the week under the 18ma would be different for sure, so we'll see how everything is after FOMC.

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on some charts the daily BB is getting close we may stall out soon

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OK interesting day. Looks like the weekly 18ma will hold today. Currently I like this idea. WXYXZ I think it is.....Enough whipsaws to take everyone out. The higher time frame RSI (4 hr+) needs to be reset, but the lower time frame RSI (hourly and under) will get overbought by tomorrow, so this will probably cause heavy swings in both directions. It's just an idea, but I don't see a crash happening at this point.

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exact gap fill on ES (futures) I expect more upside overnight into tomorrow

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should get up to 4490+ before 2pm tomorrow. That area has been of particular interest to the market and it would test the trendline which broke.

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timing is hard remember!

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good morning, futures continued higher as expected, but as of now I'm not sure what will be next. Let me make it easy for FOMC day - If it goes up hard, I expect a sell off and if it drops hard, I expect a rally. As of now the video target of 4600ish is still on the table by EOW or next week, but it may be a completely confusing path to get there.

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Hourly time frame rsi "may be" be pointing to this

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whatever happens today also may get reversed with tomorrow's numbers, so best to stay nimble us.econoday.com/byweek.asp

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another chart I'm watching is SOXX - clear channel trendline below, I'm sure many see it. A spike down and then bounce away is more likely than not. This corresponds with my idea for the SPX today - Down at some point and then bounce back up.

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small time frame count looks like this to me at the moment - I expect a move down soon. I'll be away for much of the day, I'll recap later.

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Right now I expect this into tomorrow and a reversal - maybe with the 8:30 numbers.

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small time frame rsi getting oversold, we may just still be in the B wave before C up with FOMC. I still think lower after any pump.

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my afrernoon meeting got moved, so I'll be here for FOMC. I still think this is probable for today and into tomorrow. Bears probably get confident tomorrow right at support under 4400....

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RSI on small time frames is too low, watch for reversal soon

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Powell speech at 2:30, they may wait until then. Remember strong support is 4400-4380 level even if they tank it here.

youtube.com/watch?v=xPYaLfIsyoY

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No rally, and probably weak into close to convince bears to stay short, but I still think we'll bounce at support 4400-4830 area with the 830 numbers or before. If I'm wrong I will update.

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daily BB at 4402 on cash, that area needs to be held by bulls into tomorrow.

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BB reached on SPX cash, IWM and QQQ let' s see how tomorrow looks!

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structure which was previous support is nearby, let's see if they can hold it. If not next support is the lower blue line.

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so far everything is exactly like I mentioned in the video, if anything changes I'll make a new video. Bulls need to hold this area, a little lower is ok but not too much.

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broke down below support overnight. Next target and horizontal support directly below. If the numbers are positive we may get a small rally, but as of now the idea of going much higher doesn't look good. We are below the weekly 18ma at about 4420, and any rally to it would be a shorting opportunity. Whether they get to it or not is hard to say, however rsi on hourly is as low as it gets, so some kind of bounce is probable. .

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daily 100ma (green line) and lower daily BB together (usually a strong support) broke easily overnight. A retest of the 100 is likely, and probably a good area to add some short exposure.

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SOXX below channel, I expect we get a back test before further downside so a rally today into tomorrow may come but nothing crazy.

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new video update

the_sunship

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