📉 S&P500 – 10th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13, now in the second phase. The bear is completing the overdue 50-week and 4-year cycles. Target levels are outlined here. The expected range for the base cycle low is mid-May to mid-June. At this point, I anticipate a reversal between the extreme forecasts of June 16 and June 23, marking the start of a new 4-year cycle. The beginning of any cycle, even a bearish one, is always bullish, and the start of a 4-year cycle can be very strong.
👉 Meanwhile, retrograde Venus and Mercury are predictably working against each other. As I mentioned in early March and in previous posts, retrograde Venus played out with a one-week lag upward. Retrograde Mercury on March 17 did not support the phase start as I expected last week; instead, it delayed the bullish move but lacked the energy to reverse it. Venus remains the stronger influence. The situation resembles the beginning of the second phase of the base cycle. Note the weak start of this phase.
⚠️ Technically, we are in a bearish base cycle. Therefore, the second phase is also expected to be bearish, with a short rally followed by a steep drop below the opening. A strong resistance level is at the familiar 5850 mark. The next extreme forecast is March 24 – the midpoint of retrograde Mercury. There is also a pivot forecast on March 27, but that is more relevant to crude.
👉 Meanwhile, retrograde Venus and Mercury are predictably working against each other. As I mentioned in early March and in previous posts, retrograde Venus played out with a one-week lag upward. Retrograde Mercury on March 17 did not support the phase start as I expected last week; instead, it delayed the bullish move but lacked the energy to reverse it. Venus remains the stronger influence. The situation resembles the beginning of the second phase of the base cycle. Note the weak start of this phase.
⚠️ Technically, we are in a bearish base cycle. Therefore, the second phase is also expected to be bearish, with a short rally followed by a steep drop below the opening. A strong resistance level is at the familiar 5850 mark. The next extreme forecast is March 24 – the midpoint of retrograde Mercury. There is also a pivot forecast on March 27, but that is more relevant to crude.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.