[SPX] ATH or Bull Trap CRASH?... That is the Question!
Updated
Ok guys, damn, haven't seen so much enthusiasm for reaching the ATH before. All you day traders are blowing me up lol.
So what's it gonna be... ATH or Bull Trap crash?
Well I dunno, so far my resistance around 3264 is holding up on my Acid Trip and Mega Trend model posts from yesterday. Probably mostly just people waiting on earnings and holding steady so the real validation test will be tomorrow.
I think ATH odds are long, most ideas here are drawing peak and low based megaphone patterns and then drawing a line up to the bottom of the megaphone.
My Tholian Web model here was an early take where I also went that route but I really don't think it captures the true nature of the market here, which is why I'm more heavily favoring my newer Mega Trend model, where I instead drew a TREND BASED megaphone pattern. In that model we're already right at the top of the megaphone now.
So based on a peak and low megaphone model were looking at potential ATH at 3450-3500 (top yellow line) but getting there would require a level of irrational exuberance never before seen. So plausible but unlikely.
We are approaching the next green S/R line here so I'd expect the market to ride up that or fall under and begin the crash.
Aside from my models, the most important day to day tracking I'm doing is over on the DIX: squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix
Here we're seeing sustained divergence between the DIX and the GEX with GEX on top and DIX downtrend, which is very bearish.
What I'm expecting is GEX to spike up through Price to higher highs and DIX to diverge further to lower lows. Once that happens, they'll be no stopping the downturn.
Unfortunately their data is delayed by a few hours from close so we'll know more soon but if you're not even looking at the DIX day to day then you're trading with one hand behind your back.
So what's it gonna be... ATH or Bull Trap crash?
Well I dunno, so far my resistance around 3264 is holding up on my Acid Trip and Mega Trend model posts from yesterday. Probably mostly just people waiting on earnings and holding steady so the real validation test will be tomorrow.
I think ATH odds are long, most ideas here are drawing peak and low based megaphone patterns and then drawing a line up to the bottom of the megaphone.
My Tholian Web model here was an early take where I also went that route but I really don't think it captures the true nature of the market here, which is why I'm more heavily favoring my newer Mega Trend model, where I instead drew a TREND BASED megaphone pattern. In that model we're already right at the top of the megaphone now.
So based on a peak and low megaphone model were looking at potential ATH at 3450-3500 (top yellow line) but getting there would require a level of irrational exuberance never before seen. So plausible but unlikely.
We are approaching the next green S/R line here so I'd expect the market to ride up that or fall under and begin the crash.
Aside from my models, the most important day to day tracking I'm doing is over on the DIX: squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix
Here we're seeing sustained divergence between the DIX and the GEX with GEX on top and DIX downtrend, which is very bearish.
What I'm expecting is GEX to spike up through Price to higher highs and DIX to diverge further to lower lows. Once that happens, they'll be no stopping the downturn.
Unfortunately their data is delayed by a few hours from close so we'll know more soon but if you're not even looking at the DIX day to day then you're trading with one hand behind your back.
Note
What I’ve been tellin you guys...ccn.com/corporate-insiders-quietly-ring-the-register-as-sell-orders-surge/
Data analyst with a passion for best fit lines B)
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