With the FED reiterating its hawkish stance this week, we are growing less optimistic about the stock market. Indeed, we believe the FED will worsen economic conditions by raising interest rates later this month. As a result, we think a risk aversion will creep back into the market and lead to further weakness among stock titles.
Furthermore, we believe the stock market will drift to new lows over time. Because of that, we have no reason to change our bearish bias on SPX. Accordingly, we stick to our price target of 3 500 USD.
Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of SPX. It can be observed that SPX is down approximately 17% from its all-time high value, which is just 3% away from the bear market territory. Ideally, we would like to see the market drop by that magnitude. That would further confirm our bearish bias.
Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI's bearish structure remains intact. MACD and Stochastic are neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bearish.
Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the daily chart of SPX. Additionally, it shows simple support and resistance levels for SPX.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
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