Last night update
Copy pasting of what I sent last night to those who are on my email list:
It seems the market is going to test 3965-80 zone after all. I was expecting it first part of July but it took time.
So some "wave slapping":
- My target is 4030, it can top at 4013-18 but it doesn't really matter - A wave (around 25-26th of Jul)
- Down to higher lows into 37xx zone (with possible overshoot into 36xx zone), where 3696-75 fits better - B wave (around 15th of Aug)
- C wave up into 4330 and the 200MA should be around that number when we should approach it, perfect fit for the count (late Aug, early Sep)
So the whole move should look like the move from Feb and Mar lows.
Volatility is set to rise from the 25th into early Aug
We have only 1 gap to close and 5 below, I think all will get filled
SPX gaps to close:
- 4017.81
- 3830.81
- 3800.91
- 3790.14
- 3674.85
Weekly resistance level is at 4090SPX
Monthly resistance level is 3950.50SPX
I do expect to close the month below the last number, closing above could shif the bearish outlook on longer term view.
So far I do think we will hit 32 handle at min with ideal erase the whole move of 2020 low and even retesting those lows. That would be the most bearish scenario and could last into 2024 instead of Q1 2023 as Im expecting now.
The level of importance tomorrow is - 3918 and 3911 on closing level. Below 3880 is the most important number, below it we should fall back into high 3700 territory.
So I expect this move to turn tomorrow and have 2 days correction and one more push into the 25-26th to finish up this move and fall into Aug 15th (or so) low. Then we should get a non stop rally Mar like back to the 4300 handle.
It seems the market is going to test 3965-80 zone after all. I was expecting it first part of July but it took time.
So some "wave slapping":
- My target is 4030, it can top at 4013-18 but it doesn't really matter - A wave (around 25-26th of Jul)
- Down to higher lows into 37xx zone (with possible overshoot into 36xx zone), where 3696-75 fits better - B wave (around 15th of Aug)
- C wave up into 4330 and the 200MA should be around that number when we should approach it, perfect fit for the count (late Aug, early Sep)
So the whole move should look like the move from Feb and Mar lows.
Volatility is set to rise from the 25th into early Aug
We have only 1 gap to close and 5 below, I think all will get filled
SPX gaps to close:
- 4017.81
- 3830.81
- 3800.91
- 3790.14
- 3674.85
Weekly resistance level is at 4090SPX
Monthly resistance level is 3950.50SPX
I do expect to close the month below the last number, closing above could shif the bearish outlook on longer term view.
So far I do think we will hit 32 handle at min with ideal erase the whole move of 2020 low and even retesting those lows. That would be the most bearish scenario and could last into 2024 instead of Q1 2023 as Im expecting now.
The level of importance tomorrow is - 3918 and 3911 on closing level. Below 3880 is the most important number, below it we should fall back into high 3700 territory.
So I expect this move to turn tomorrow and have 2 days correction and one more push into the 25-26th to finish up this move and fall into Aug 15th (or so) low. Then we should get a non stop rally Mar like back to the 4300 handle.
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