Short

Trumps vs. Russia

Updated

Quote: "The FBI has information that indicates associates of President Donald Trump communicated with suspected Russian operatives to possibly coordinate the release of information damaging to Hillary Clinton's campaign, US officials told CNN."

Looks like this issue is more than rumour and this is going to affect stockmarkets in the second haflf of 2017 and would be medium term shortsignal.

If ever this discussion might end - how ever - stockmarkets will go up again.

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MAR 23 2017: US officials: Trump associates may have coordinated with Russians

edition.cnn.com/2017/03/22/politics/us-officials-info-suggests-trump-associates-may-have-coordinated-with-russians/index.html

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MAR 24 2017: Traders should ignore this issue until it matters

Schiff: New evidence shows possible Trump-Russia collusion
Source: edition.cnn.com/2017/03/23/politics/adam-schiff-trump-russia-grand-jury/

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MAR 24 2017: Traders should ignore this issue until it matters
Quote: 'More than circumstantial evidence' Donald Trump's campaign colluded with Russia to disrupt election. There is evidence 'very much worth of investigation' says Adam Schiff
Source: independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-campaign-russia-colluded-us-election-disrupt-adam-schiff-democrat-house-intelligence-a7645361.html

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MAR 28 2017: Traders should ignore this issue until it matters.
Quote: Russian banker who met with Jared Kushner has ties to Putin
edition.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/kushner-meeting-russian-banker-tied-to-putin/index.html

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MAR 29 2017: Traders should ignore this issue until it matters.
Quote: Senate intelligence leaders: 20 people to be questioned, first hearing Thursday
Source: edition.cnn.com/2017/03/29/politics/senate-intelligence-committee-conference/index.html?adkey=bn

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MAR 29 2017: Traders should ignore this issue until it matters.
Quote: Senate intelligence leaders pledge bipartisan Russia probe
investing.com/news/politics-news/senate-intelligence-leaders-pledge-bipartisan-russia-probe-469743

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MAR 30 2017 Traders should ignore this issue until it matters.
Quote: Putin slams US election meddling claims as 'lies'
Source: edition.cnn.com/2017/03/30/politics/putin-russia-us-election-denial/index.html

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MAR 30 2017: Traders should ignore this issue until it matters.
Quote: Vladimir Putin screws up famous Bush quote in weird bid to deny 2016 hacking
Source: vox.com/world/2017/3/30/15122546/vladimir-putin-read-my-lips

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MAR 30 2017: Traders should ignore this issue until it matters.
Quote: Two White House officials helped give Nunes intelligence reports: NYT
Source: investing.com/news/politics-news/two-white-house-officials-helped-give-nunes-intelligence-reports:-new-york-times-470043

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MAR 30 2017: Traders should ignore this issue until it matters.
Russian meddling doesn't stop after the election
edition.cnn.com/2017/03/30/politics/senate-intelligence-committee-hearing-russia/index.html

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MAR 31 2017: Traders should focus now on this Issue. Marketscould react with a major sell off to any (!) Testimony.

Flynn seeks immunity for testimony
edition.cnn.com/2017/03/30/politics/michael-flynn-immunity-testimony/index.html

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MAR 31 2017: Quote: Flynn immunity offer hangs over Russia investigators
Source: edition.cnn.com/2017/03/31/politics/mike-flynn-investigation-russia-immunity/index.html

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MAR 30 2017: Trump declares war on Republican conservatives: 'We must fight them'
investing.com/news/politics-news/trump-takes-aim-at-republican-conservatives%3A-%27we-must-fight-them%27-469946

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April 01 2017 - Now ask yourself a simple question: Why is Donald Trump allways getting more and more aggressive against "China", Immigrants or Mexico, if ever he gets under serious Pressure about Trump/Flynn/Putin/U.S. Election?

APR 01 2017- Trump's newest orders warn China: Get ready for a tough talk next week
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/31/xi-summit-trump-executive-orders-warn-china-of-tough-trade-talk.html

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APR 01 2017: Fear Indicator Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso ist the most perfect Indicator to follow up how "storng" Donald Trump is (as US-President).

From the European and Mexican point of view is any "Trump weakness" long term extremly positiv. Maybe any Flynn testimony might cause a short term sell off - but long term Traders and Investors needs to keep in mind that this bullmarket is based on strong economic fundamentals and even not on Donald Trump. Donald Trump is still fighting against globalisation. If ever he might be forced to resign stockmarkets will go up.

The logic could be, that any impeachment could cause shortterm huge selling pressure especially to US-Stockmarkets. But keep in mind to check at times the Mexican Peso what signal we might get from here.

Note

APR 01 2017: The Russia/Flynn/Freedom Caucus vortex of questions and tension at the White House
Source: edition.cnn.com/2017/03/31/politics/donald-trump-white-house-presidency/index.html

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APR 01 2017: Trump walks out before signing executive orders

Quote: (CNN)President Donald Trump walked out of an executive order signing ceremony Friday -- without actually signing the orders.
During the signing ceremony, White House pool reporters asked Trump questions about his former national security adviser Michael Flynn, who has offered to testify on Russian involvement in the US election in return for immunity from prosecution. The President ignored the questions and moved to another room, only to be followed by Vice President Mike Pence, who picked up the folders containing the two executive orders. Trump later signed the pair of orders aimed at identifying and targeting foreign trade abuses, according to the White House, but behind closed doors. Source: edition.cnn.com/2017/03/31/politics/donald-trump-executive-order-signing-walk-out/index.html

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MAR 30 2017: Majority of Americans think Trump's doing a poor job and the country is headed in the wrong direction: Poll
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/30/poll-trumps-approval-rating-is-falling.html

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MAR 29 2017: With record low approval rates Donald Trump has no chance to be backed by the GOP if ever a impeachment process might be started.

Quote: Trump's approval rating slips to another new low, much lower than recent presidents at this point in their terms
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/29/trumps-approval-rating-slips-to-another-new-low-much-lower-than-recent-presidents-at-this-point-in-their-terms.html

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APR 02 2017: Flynn did not disclose income from Russian companies: White House
investing.com/news/world-news/flynn-did-not-disclose-income-from-russian-companies:-white-house-470463

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APR 05 2017 - Quote: Castro: Trump associates will end up in jail
Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX) says that if he was a betting man, based on the evidence he's seen that some associates of President Donald Trump will go to jail for their ties to Russia's meddling in the US election.Source: CNN
Source: edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2017/04/04/castro-russia-investigation-going-to-jail-tsr.cnn

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APR 05 2017 - Quote: In reversal, Bannon removed from National Security Council
(CNN)Steve Bannon, President Donald Trump's chief strategist, has been removed from his permanent seat at the National Security Council, multiple sources tell CNN, moving the council into a more traditional format.
The decision, which one source with knowledge said was made by Trump himself, comes after the President in January authorized the reorganization of the National Security Council to include Bannon as a permanent member of the panel. Source: edition.cnn.com/2017/04/05/politics/steve-bannon-white-house-national-security-council/index.html

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APR 06 2017 What Trump has said about Syria and Assad
abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-syria-assad/story?id=46620156

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APR 06 2017: STRIKING ASSAD IS RISKIER FOR TRUMP THAN IT WAS FOR OBAMA
newsweek.com/assad-trump-bomb-syria-putin-russia-obama-sarin-chemical-weapons-iran-580319

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APR 07 2017 - U.S. strikes Syrian military airfield in first direct assault on Bashar al-Assad’s government
washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-weighing-military-options-following-chemical-weapons-attack-in-syria/2017/04/06/0c59603a-1ae8-11e7-9887-1a5314b56a08_story.html?utm_term=.303f55f10c64

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APR 07 2017 - Hillary Clinton calls for U.S. to bomb Syrian air fields
investing.com/news/politics-news/hillary-clinton-calls-for-u.s.-to-bomb-syrian-air-fields-472332

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APR 07 2017 - US fires over 50 missiles at Syria: Reuters
investing.com/news/politics-news/us-fires-over-50-missiles-at-syria:-reuters-472328

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APR 07 2017 - Kremlin says Syria strikes do significant damage to US-Russia ties
cnbc.com/2017/04/07/kremlin-says-strikes-do-significant-damage-to-us-russia-ties.html

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APR 08 2017 Russia has 'egg on their face' after Trump airstrike, says former US ambassador to Syria
cnbc.com/2017/04/07/russia-has-egg-on-their-face-after-trump-airstrike-says-former-us-ambassador-to-syria.html

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APR 08 2017 - Populist Johnson stays away from Populist Putin
Quote: UK's Johnson cancels Moscow visit after Syria gas attack
investing.com/news/world-news/uk%27s-johnson-cancels-moscow-visit-after-syria-gas-attack-472727

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APR 25 2017 - Former U.S. officials to testify at May 8 Senate hearing on Russia probe
investing.com/news/politics-news/u.s.-ex-officials-to-testify-at-may-8-senate-hearing-amid-russia-probe-477079

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APR 25 2017 - Former Trump adviser Flynn likely broke law with Russia trip: lawmakers
investing.com/news/politics-news/former-trump-adviser-flynn-likely-broke-law-with-russia-trip:-lawmakers-477241

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Pentagon probes Trump's ex-adviser Flynn over foreign payments
investing.com/news/politics-news/pentagon-launches-probe-into-trump's-ex-security-adviser-flynn:-letter-478092

Note

investing.com/news/politics-news/ex-obama-administration-officials-to-testify-in-trump-russia-probe-480947
investing.com/news/politics-news/ex-obama-administration-officials-to-testify-in-trump-russia-probe-480947

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Ex-Obama administration officials to testify in Trump-Russia probe
investing.com/news/politics-news/ex-obama-administration-officials-to-testify-in-trump-russia-probe-480947

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White House fires FBI Director James Comey
marketwatch.com/story/white-house-fires-fbi-director-james-comey-2017-05-09?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

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Time to open now a new trading idea about an likly or unlikly impechment procedure about Donald J. Trump.

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Forex - Dollar dips after Trump fires FBI boss Comey
investing.com/news/forex-news/forex---dollar-dips-after-trump-fires-fbi-boss-comey-482212

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Justice Department was told to come up with reasons to fire Comey, reports say

Several lawmakers questioned the timing of Comey's removal because the FBI is investigating Russia's alleged interference in the 2016 presidential election, including any possible links between the Trump campaign and Moscow.

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Justice Department was told to come up with reasons to fire Comey, reports say
cnbc.com/2017/05/09/justice-department-was-told-to-come-up-with-reasons-to-fire-comey-reports-say.html

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FBI chief aimed to expand Russia probe before Trump fired him: source
investing.com/news/politics-news/trump-defends-firing-of-fbi-director,-pledges-'far-better'-replacement-482440

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Treasury unit to share records with Senate for Trump-Russia probe: WSJ
investing.com/news/politics-news/treasury-unit-to-share-records-with-senate-for-trump-russia-probe:-wsj-483903

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Dmitry Rybolovlev, who keeps flying in to meet Donald Trump, owned Russian money laundering bank
palmerreport.com/news/dmitry-rybolovlev-who-keeps-flying-in-to-meet-donald-trump-owns-russian-money-laundering-bank/1692/

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'No foundation in fact': Russian billionaire issues first response to theories about his ties to Trump
businessinsider.com/russian-billionaire-rybolovlev-responds-to-accusations-about-ties-to-trump-2017-3

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"With a few exceptions" - Trumps lawyers say he makes (almost) no money from Russia.
news.vice.com/story/trumps-lawyers-say-he-makes-no-money-from-russia-with-a-few-exceptions

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Trump lawyers push back against Russia ties in letter
Donald Trump's attorneys said that their review of his last 10 years of tax returns do not reflect "any income of any type from Russian sources"
The attorneys did not release copies of Trump's tax returns
There were exceptions, including the 2013 Miss Universe pageant held in Moscow
cnbc.com/2017/05/12/trump-lawyer-says-tax-returns-from-past-10-years-show-no-income-of-any-type-from-russian-souces-with-few-exceptions-report.html

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Russian Billionaires Are Putin's Hostages
bloomberg.com/view/articles/2014-12-19/russian-billionaires-are-putins-hostages

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Trump revealed classified information to Lavrov at White House meeting: Washington Post
investing.com/news/politics-news/trump-revealed-classified-information-to-lavrov-at-white-house-meeting:-washington-post-484588

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More Americans want 'independent' investigation of Trump: Reuters/Ipsos poll
investing.com/news/politics-news/more-americans-want-'independent'-investigation-of-trump:-reuters-ipsos-poll-484586

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Trump revealed intelligence secrets to Russians in Oval Office: officials
investing.com/news/economy-news/germany's-upturn-set-to-continue-in-coming-months:-economy-ministry-484151

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Trumps path to the impeachment procedure:

1. Losing support of his base
2. Weak U.S. economy data.

Quote: Trump is losing some support from key parts of his base, poll says
President Donald Trump's approval rating slid in the latest Quinnipiac Poll
It fell among independents, white voters with no college degree and white men
Source: cnbc.com/2017/05/10/trump-is-losing-some-support-from-key-parts-of-his-base-poll-says.html

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How to trade it:

Short the impeachment procedure, long any decision (impeachment) just before the result of Senat and Kongressvoting is out.

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Trump asked Comey to close Flynn probe: NY Times, citing Comey memo
investing.com/news/politics-news/trump-asked-comey-to-close-flynn-probe:-ny-times,-citing-comey-memo-485143

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As written above repeatedly: Traders shout ignore this issue until it matters.

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Trump voters want jobs. Not noise about Russia
money.cnn.com/2017/05/16/news/economy/donald-trump-voters-jobs-russia/index.html

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More U.S. Republicans back independent probe of Trump-Russia ties

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More U.S. Republicans back independent probe of Trump-Russia ties
investing.com/news/politics-news/more-u.s.-republicans-back-independent-probe-of-trump-russia-ties-485457

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Game over. Last exit before going to jail: Trump needs to resign before any investigation starts and might get pardon from Mike Pence als new U.S. President.

U.S. Justice Department appoints special counsel in Russia probe
investing.com/news/politics-news/u.s.-justice-departments-appoints-special-counsel-in-russia-probe-485680

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"They" want to remove him and they will make it. I guess this will happen much faster than anticipated.
cnbc.com/2017/05/16/this-latest-trump-russia-leak-smells-like-a-coup-attempt-commentary.html

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Comey agrees to testify in open hearing before Senate Intelligence Committee

Former FBI Director James Comey is expected to testify before the Senate Intelligence Committee after Memorial Day.
He'll likely be asked about the circumstances around his sudden firing as well as issues related to the panel's investigation of Russia's alleged interference in the 2016 election.
cnbc.com/2017/05/19/comey-agrees-to-testify-in-open-before-senate-intelligence-committee.html

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Traveling abroad, Trump struggles to escape crisis
investing.com/news/politics-news/traveling-abroad,-trump-struggles-to-escape-crisis-486707

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Trump gets more time to survive:
Michael Flynn 'to decline Senate subpoena and invoke 5th Amendment'
independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/michael-flynn-russia-investigation-5th-amendment-senate-subpoena-decline-latest-a7749631.html

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George Soros has added to his losing bets against the stock market
cnbc.com/2017/05/18/george-soros-has-added-to-his-losing-bets-against-the-stock-market.html

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Trump has officially become a negative for the US dollar
cnbc.com/2017/05/22/trump-has-officially-become-a-negative-for-the-us-dollar.html

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Ex-CIA chief: Worries grew of Trump campaign contacts to Russia
investing.com/news/politics-news/cia-ex-chief-cites-signs-of-possible-trump-campaign-ties-to-russia-487626

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Manafort turns over hundreds of pages of documents to Senate intel
edition.cnn.com/2017/05/23/politics/manafort-documents-senate-intelligence/

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Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner reportedly discussed setting up secret channel with Moscow
Jared Kushner proposed the possibility of setting up a secret channel between the Trump transition team and the Kremlin, The Washington Post reports.
Kushner is "under FBI scrutiny" in the Russia probe, NBC News previously reported.

cnbc.com/2017/05/26/trump-son-in-law-kushner-reportedly-discussed-channel-with-moscow.html

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Trump, feted and chided abroad, returns to uncertainty at home
edition.cnn.com/2017/05/28/politics/trump-foreign-trip-return/index.html

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Specs preparing to short Trump:

Why one hedge-fund titan is bracing for ‘all hell to break lose’ in the stock market
marketwatch.com/story/why-one-hedge-fund-titan-is-bracing-for-all-hell-to-break-lose-on-wall-street-2017-05-26?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

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THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Trump lawyer says he won’t cooperate with Russia probes
marketwatch.com/story/trump-lawyer-says-he-wont-cooperate-with-russia-probes-2017-05-30?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

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The Trump team don't cooperate with Russia probes in general, obviously. For traders it means it could least weeks or month, until this issue matters. DJIA and Germany's DAX could move higher for a while before this issue affects stockmarket prices.

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Former diplomats: Trump team sought to lift sanctions on Russia
cnbc.com/2017/06/02/former-diplomats-trump-team-sought-to-lift-sanctions-on-russia.html

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Trump to decide whether to block Comey testimony: White House adviser
investing.com/news/politics-news/trump-to-decide-whether-to-block-comey-testimony:-white-house-adviser-491242

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Will Trump block Comey testimony? White House does not know yet
investing.com/news/politics-news/trump-to-decide-whether-to-block-comey-testimony:-white-house-adviser-491242

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Special counsel Mueller investigating Trump for possible obstruction of justice: Washington Post
cnbc.com/2017/06/14/special-counsel-mueller-investigating-trump-for-possible-obstruction-of-justice-washington-post.html

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Playing games: If ever Russia shot down a US warplane at, before or after the G20 summit all 18 (western) of the G20 Nations are forced to back Donald Trump. Win win situation for both Donald J. Trump and Vladimir Putin facing growing opposition at home.
nytimes.com/2017/06/19/world/middleeast/russia-syria.html?_r=0

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Donald Trumps approval rates on new record lows:
washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/16/National-Politics/Polling/question_18935.xml?uuid=QLWiFmnbEeeUq1sfD_RZ3w

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President Trump's six-month approval rating is lowest ever recorded — but he says it's 'not bad'
nydailynews.com/news/politics/president-trump-six-month-approval-rating-lowest-record-article-1.3330385

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At Private Dinners, Pence Quietly Courts Big Donors and Corporate Executives

WASHINGTON — Vice President Mike Pence has been courting scores of the country’s most influential donors, corporate executives and conservative political leaders over the past several months in a series of private gatherings and one-on-one conversations.
Quote: nytimes.com/2017/07/09/us/politics/at-private-dinners-pence-quietly-courts-big-donors-and-corporate-executives.html

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Mueller reportedly looking into Trump's family business as part of Russia probe

Special Counsel Robert Mueller is examining a broad range of transactions involving Trump's businesses, Bloomberg reports.
On Wednesday, Trump said Mueller would be crossing a red line if he expanded his investigation to look at Trump family finances beyond ties to Russia.
Source: cnbc.com/2017/07/20/trump-warns-mueller-against-looking-into-his-family-finances-apart-from-russia-investigation.html

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Exclusive: Moscow lawyer who met Trump Jr. had Russian spy agency as client
investing.com/news/politics-news/exclusive:-moscow-lawyer-who-met-trump-jr.-had-russian-spy-agency-as-client-508405

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