Short

Right Inverted Shoulder

Updated

H&S Inverted Pattern plays out. rejected 4100. This intense two day selling move looks and feels impulsive.

Still could play out as an ABC but in this bear all the downs have been impulsive 5-waves. Being long is hi-risk imo.

So this is just Wave 1. A bull trap is coming for a day or two. FOMC likely trigger for the 3rd Wave, final target 3660.

After TL break, retrace up wave after first move down is typically a 0.62 retracement, could pivot sooner at .382 or 0.50.

IMO The Grinch will be running holidays and Santa will come late to this party, or not at all. Don't count on seasonality.

Top is in IMO. Look at Dec 2018. Get it? Good. Coal in all your stockings! GLTA

Note

Bearish again. Could be a hammer day, watch out, Third day of selling often culminates in pivot reversal.

Gap down could be bearish exhaustion gap, retest lows; R>G possible IMO.

These can be huge opportunity days but also ofc risky as Hell. Trade lightly!

Note

Banked puts first on am weakness then calls on the runup. Choppy day, poor R/R atm. It is lifting off the selloff levels. Resistance at 3950 SPX might be overcome if PPI comes in cool Fri 0830. NQ is weak.

Trade active

Tues put day, Thurs call day. Fri: Moar calls IMO. Holding DIA, SPY. PPI in AM will move it, expect a one-way day.

Which way? Find out soon!

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Red. Not a happy PPI. Rally looks done imo. Strangle might breakeven. Always a gamble!

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Another strange and frustrating day. Chop, pop, drop and very bearish EOD selloff. Unusual to sell off in last 15m and close LOTD. Not holding anything.
Clearly headed lower BUT FOMC weds will likely provide a prop event.
Short entry there if it does.

Note

JN pattern of 16-21 september appears to repeat again leading up to fomc. A silly bubble day Weds on hopium will likely lead to sharp decline imo

Trade active

Amazing. Flipped puts 3x before I realized it was going to fill the gap all the wayy downnn. Calls destroyed.
Rode the weak EOD rally until realized this dog jus wont hunt and shorted EOD in Dec SPY 403p, a $5 spread.

Trade light on Weds. Might be a call play as typically at 2pm there will be a relief rally, which is usually wrong direction. All these rallies have been short entries.

Trade active

Backed up the putwagon today and banked it. Opened 400 SPXS and bought 20 Jan SPXS $22 calls, in at .84c.

Going down. Each rally to a lower high after double top. Got 4100 twice, today 4050, 4025 EOD. Short if it rallies Thurs; last gasp imo.

Grinch for Christmas.

Trade active

Closed all shorts. Re-entry soon. Watch close. Triple witching Fri.

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IN and out. NO bounce in it yet, so weak. Might just short eod in Jan puts. Santa not coming, sry!

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Yeahhhhh. Bounce coming; short it imo.

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Ho-hum another red day. Getting oversold. Won't be much longer to a bounce. Wee Santa jingling?

Trade active

Expected a bounce and banked calls early on, sadly returned part of gains on eod weakness, just so weak.

I reckon another leg down is coming, Grinch growling. No positions, all high risk now.

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Well surprise surprise surprise! "Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus"!

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Lotta Resist for SPY at 387. Expected a bigger pop EOD, did clip a few 0dte calls in power hour but it was mostly sour hour.. Feels like a 4th wave IMO; more down to come.

Would not buy this market just yet!

Note

JN the neckline of rally structure coincides with .382 Fibo ~3920. Look for rejection there imo.

DaddySawbucks

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Rally Top

by DaddySawbucks

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