After three years of almost uninterrupted gains, the U.S. market has finally shifted gears.
In early March, following a sharp escalation in trade tensions between China and the United States, the S&P 500 officially entered a bear market.
The tariff shock acted as a catalyst: buyers failed to defend critical levels, and the bullish momentum broke down.
Today, my scenario is clear:
I believe we are entering a wide range similar to what we saw in 2022, between 4700 and 5500 points.
In this controlled volatility environment, both investing and trading strategies must adapt.
💰 For long-term investing:
I'm staying fully in cash.
I prefer to wait until my personal indicator flashes green again before re-entering the market.
Patience is my best weapon in uncertain environments.
🎯 For swing trading:
The approach here is more active.
Each touch of the lower boundary (around 4700) will be considered a tactical buy, aiming to resell around 5500 points at the top of the range.
No rushing, no chasing moves: I only act at the extremes.
Trade active
Here's where we are:Still, for my part, with a view to a range top.
Long-term trading: always full cash.
For those actively swing trading: Open a short position towards 4700. Trade invalidation: SL 5715
Another possible option is a market restart, invalidating the range option and your short position if you opened it... I've marked this second option in red. If it's a true switch with another likely bullish leg, then my indicator will flash green.
Discover my trend-following SP500 indicator ➔ lazysmarttrading.gumroad.com/l/pzgkt/hghn9qc
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Discover my trend-following SP500 indicator ➔ lazysmarttrading.gumroad.com/l/pzgkt/hghn9qc
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.