SPX is not even close to REAL ATH
Hi All.
Has you could see my previous ideas were completely trash. Since then I tried to undestand why and realized, has many of you would done before, and went long, that I was ignoring the "M2 - Money Stock or money supply" deflation effect.
In this chart we can see the M2 in blue (left scale in $ Billions) and the SPX adjusted for the available money and for the actual Money Supply ammount (around 18.000 BN).
The climb of the M2 - Money Supply since March is absultely insane!... that 3 Trillion...
In "Real Value" (Adjusted to M2), SPX is now reaching 0,618 level from Feb/March 2020 fall and NDX if adjusted as well is close to Feb/2020 levels (double top?).
I belive that there's a little room for upside for completing some extenison patterns around 3450 or even 3500 and then a first fall to near 3000/2930.
One more thing: as you can see, the real ATH in indexes were achieved in the year 2000. Since then, all ATH are fake.
Has you could see my previous ideas were completely trash. Since then I tried to undestand why and realized, has many of you would done before, and went long, that I was ignoring the "M2 - Money Stock or money supply" deflation effect.
In this chart we can see the M2 in blue (left scale in $ Billions) and the SPX adjusted for the available money and for the actual Money Supply ammount (around 18.000 BN).
The climb of the M2 - Money Supply since March is absultely insane!... that 3 Trillion...
In "Real Value" (Adjusted to M2), SPX is now reaching 0,618 level from Feb/March 2020 fall and NDX if adjusted as well is close to Feb/2020 levels (double top?).
I belive that there's a little room for upside for completing some extenison patterns around 3450 or even 3500 and then a first fall to near 3000/2930.
One more thing: as you can see, the real ATH in indexes were achieved in the year 2000. Since then, all ATH are fake.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.