SPX Daily TA Cautiously Bearish
SPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 30% SPX, 70% Cash.
*The Fed stayed on their path of moving to restrictive monetary policy and raised the funds rate by 75bps to 3.75%-4%. DXY, US Treasuries and Agriculture are up while Cryptos, Equities, Equity Futures, Metals, Energy, CNYUSD, JPYUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD are all down. Fed Chair Powell mentioned that more rate hikes are to come but that they would likely consider slowing the rate of increases in the coming meetings. FFR speculators are currently betting on a 50bps rate hike on 12/14/22 but economic data between now and then may force the Fed to contemplate another 75bps. In timely fashion, Russia resumed its arrangement with Ukraine to allow them to use Black Sea shipping corridors for grain and fertilizer shipments but Putin mentioned that they can withdraw again if Ukraine "breaches the deal" by striking Russia in these corridors. Putin also mentioned that in this situation, Russia would supply the poorest countries with grain from their own stock; he also stated that Russia would stop short of blocking Ukraine grain shipments to Turkey. In Israel, right-wing former PM Netanyahu is expected to be reelected as PM in the coming days. Speculators see this as as a positive counter to Iran's recent support for Russia and revival of their nuclear missile program but a negative for Palestinian peace talks. Key Upcoming Dates: October Employment Situation at 830am (EST) 11/04; US October CPI at 830am EST 11/10; UofM November Consumer Sentiment Survey at 10am EST 11/11; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30.*
Price is currently testing the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 as support at ~$3780 after getting rejected by $3938 minor resistance and breaking back down below the 50MA (~$3825). Volume remains High (low) and has favored sellers the past three consecutive sessions; Price was rejected by the POC (VP) at around $3938 minor resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3688, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 48.5 and is at risk of losing 52.68 support if it doesn't bounce soon, the next support is the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~43 as support. Stochastic remains bearish after a failed bullish crossover attempt and is currently testing 76.29 support. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending down at 15.5 as it continues to technically test 10.73 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending down at 20 as Price attempts to keep pushing higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here then it will have to reclaim support of the 50MA at ~$3825 before it is able to formally retest $3938 minor resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $3658 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3825.
*The Fed stayed on their path of moving to restrictive monetary policy and raised the funds rate by 75bps to 3.75%-4%. DXY, US Treasuries and Agriculture are up while Cryptos, Equities, Equity Futures, Metals, Energy, CNYUSD, JPYUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD are all down. Fed Chair Powell mentioned that more rate hikes are to come but that they would likely consider slowing the rate of increases in the coming meetings. FFR speculators are currently betting on a 50bps rate hike on 12/14/22 but economic data between now and then may force the Fed to contemplate another 75bps. In timely fashion, Russia resumed its arrangement with Ukraine to allow them to use Black Sea shipping corridors for grain and fertilizer shipments but Putin mentioned that they can withdraw again if Ukraine "breaches the deal" by striking Russia in these corridors. Putin also mentioned that in this situation, Russia would supply the poorest countries with grain from their own stock; he also stated that Russia would stop short of blocking Ukraine grain shipments to Turkey. In Israel, right-wing former PM Netanyahu is expected to be reelected as PM in the coming days. Speculators see this as as a positive counter to Iran's recent support for Russia and revival of their nuclear missile program but a negative for Palestinian peace talks. Key Upcoming Dates: October Employment Situation at 830am (EST) 11/04; US October CPI at 830am EST 11/10; UofM November Consumer Sentiment Survey at 10am EST 11/11; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30.*
Price is currently testing the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 as support at ~$3780 after getting rejected by $3938 minor resistance and breaking back down below the 50MA (~$3825). Volume remains High (low) and has favored sellers the past three consecutive sessions; Price was rejected by the POC (VP) at around $3938 minor resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3688, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 48.5 and is at risk of losing 52.68 support if it doesn't bounce soon, the next support is the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~43 as support. Stochastic remains bearish after a failed bullish crossover attempt and is currently testing 76.29 support. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending down at 15.5 as it continues to technically test 10.73 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending down at 20 as Price attempts to keep pushing higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here then it will have to reclaim support of the 50MA at ~$3825 before it is able to formally retest $3938 minor resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $3658 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3825.
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