The most important chart...
What are the conditions we need for a crash?
In my opinion we need to see these conditions coming together before we can say that we are in a crisis environment.
History showed us that before we had a crisis we 1. first saw the yield curve (US 10 year bond yield - 2 year bond yield) inverting.
2. then we saw the unemployment rate rising.
3. the yield curve steepend again.
Then the SPY had a significant correction or a crash.
So currently one of three conditions are active. The inverted yield curve.
Unemployment rate is slowly rising.
The market is still very strong. Don't step infront of a high speed train.
In my opinion we need to see these conditions coming together before we can say that we are in a crisis environment.
History showed us that before we had a crisis we 1. first saw the yield curve (US 10 year bond yield - 2 year bond yield) inverting.
2. then we saw the unemployment rate rising.
3. the yield curve steepend again.
Then the SPY had a significant correction or a crash.
So currently one of three conditions are active. The inverted yield curve.
Unemployment rate is slowly rising.
The market is still very strong. Don't step infront of a high speed train.
Murat Oers (CFTe)
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.