Short-Seller's Nightmare, Redux
Updated
If you sell short or speculate in put options because:
- Price too high! Must come down!
- RSI Overbought! Must go oversold!
- Another ATH?! Sell it! Will dump soon!
- It's an Elliott Wave and Theory crafters say "Sell today!" or "Sell on a specific day I magically forecast!"
-I feel lucky, punk! Make my day!
Then you will lose money.
IF this monster rally follows the same path we saw in last year's stupid August rally, we could see price north of 4800... the Blow-Off Top.
I am NOT saying this will happen, BUT I think it COULD happen, keep that in mind when you place your bets... beware short-killing face-rippers.
THIS IS A TUTORIAL NOT ADVICE! I'VE NO POSITION AND NONE IS RECOMMENDED!! GLTA!!!
- Price too high! Must come down!
- RSI Overbought! Must go oversold!
- Another ATH?! Sell it! Will dump soon!
- It's an Elliott Wave and Theory crafters say "Sell today!" or "Sell on a specific day I magically forecast!"
-I feel lucky, punk! Make my day!
Then you will lose money.
IF this monster rally follows the same path we saw in last year's stupid August rally, we could see price north of 4800... the Blow-Off Top.
I am NOT saying this will happen, BUT I think it COULD happen, keep that in mind when you place your bets... beware short-killing face-rippers.
THIS IS A TUTORIAL NOT ADVICE! I'VE NO POSITION AND NONE IS RECOMMENDED!! GLTA!!!
Note
Closing at HOTD and new ATH is pretty darned Bullish IMO... I see three different Elliott Wavecrafters recommending sell short, one of these specified 2 Nov as entry date... doesn't seem like a good idea atm, let's see. If you didn't get it yet, I have a real stony place in my heart for wave theorists. You cannot predict when a correction will commence, when a trend will reverse or price pivot based on wave theory, it just doesn't work.
Use all the tools in your box to develop an educated guess about price likely direction and exhaustion. EW is a tool which sometimes proves useful, but often is flawed. You cannot use any one tool to develop a successful strategy. Indicators are another tool, sometimes they just don't work, look how RSI diverges and prices keep rising, see how overbought conditions persist for weeks!
You can't enter positions solely based on a single tool.
Magical thinking, hopium and pipe dreams are not strategies.
Note
FGS look at RTY gosh IWM moved up $8 in 2 days?!? Who knew?!?Note
God-damned meltup
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.