This has been an unusually disturbing prediction that I have ever made, and yet so long expected. It's also probably for the first time, I do it on a weekly chart! The huge question mark here, is how FED will react to stagflation turning into a recession, and to recession with a looming threat to progress further. At some point, they might be tempted to act with low rate and EQ, which will further increase already high Gini index and might eventually cause defaults on loans and mortages. Thus, causing a crisis not seen since 2008. The current president Donald Trump might want to distract from the increasingly worsening domestic situation by seeking and external (and internal) enemy, further strengthening his grip on power. While the entire situation might provide a temporary boost to the defense sector alongside with utilities, foreign capital and trade will likely diminish. Unlike the 2008 crisis that was caused predominantly by internal factors, this case might be marked by geopolitical isolation which threatens to leave a much deeper scar.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.