Welcome back, guys! 👋I’m Skeptic, and today we’re diving into a complete analysis of SPX on the 4-hour time frame. We’ll break down the market structure and identify key long and short triggers for potential entries. Let’s get into it!
🔍 Market Overview
Starting with the weekly time frame, it’s clear that the major trend remains uptrend. However, the daily time frame shows that we’ve entered a secondary corrective downtrend. This has been mainly driven by recent trade tariffs between the U.S. and other countries, leading the Federal Reserve to hold off on interest rate cuts, causing a drop in risk assets like stocks and BTC.
On the 4-hour time frame, we’re currently in a range box that recently saw a fake breakout to the downside. The price quickly bounced back into the range, signaling buyer strength and seller exhaustion. This adds a slight long bias, as the probability of hitting targets on long trades might be higher.
💡 Long Setup
Our first long trigger comes after a break of resistance at 5,564.67. To increase the probability, we should wait for momentum confirmation, such as 3 SMA crossover or any momentum indicator of your choice.
The main long trigger would be after a confirmed breakout of the range box at 5,641.22. Be cautious, as this entry might carry some risk, so confirmation is crucial.
🚩 Short Setup
For short positions, I’m looking for a break below support at 5,549.77, signaling a breakdown of the range box. However, considering the previous fake breakout, I’d prefer to wait for the first down leg to complete, followed by a pullback or indecision candle before entering short.
Let me know your thoughts on SPX! 💬 Drop any questions or ideas in the comments, and I’ll be happy to discuss them.
Let’s grow together, not alone! ❤
🔍 Market Overview
Starting with the weekly time frame, it’s clear that the major trend remains uptrend. However, the daily time frame shows that we’ve entered a secondary corrective downtrend. This has been mainly driven by recent trade tariffs between the U.S. and other countries, leading the Federal Reserve to hold off on interest rate cuts, causing a drop in risk assets like stocks and BTC.
On the 4-hour time frame, we’re currently in a range box that recently saw a fake breakout to the downside. The price quickly bounced back into the range, signaling buyer strength and seller exhaustion. This adds a slight long bias, as the probability of hitting targets on long trades might be higher.
💡 Long Setup
Our first long trigger comes after a break of resistance at 5,564.67. To increase the probability, we should wait for momentum confirmation, such as 3 SMA crossover or any momentum indicator of your choice.
The main long trigger would be after a confirmed breakout of the range box at 5,641.22. Be cautious, as this entry might carry some risk, so confirmation is crucial.
🚩 Short Setup
For short positions, I’m looking for a break below support at 5,549.77, signaling a breakdown of the range box. However, considering the previous fake breakout, I’d prefer to wait for the first down leg to complete, followed by a pullback or indecision candle before entering short.
Let me know your thoughts on SPX! 💬 Drop any questions or ideas in the comments, and I’ll be happy to discuss them.
Let’s grow together, not alone! ❤
Trade closed: target reached
As you can see, on the 1H timeframe, our trigger at 5564.67 was activated with a beautiful indecision candle. If you took the trade with a safe stop loss, you're probably sitting on an R/R above 2 by now. The next optimal spot for taking profit is at the top of the box, so consider locking in some gains or closing the position there.Personally, I couldn't enter the trade as I wasn't at my PC 😆. But if you caught it, make sure to share the sweetness with me 😎.
See you on the next analysis and next trade!
Note
Let me know in the comments if you took any positions based on the triggers I shared this week. Also, I'd really appreciate any feedback on how I can improve these analyses!Wishing you all a great weekend — hope you have an amazing time! ❤️
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.