More Before Less Central Bank Stimulus To Run Economies Hot 2017
Central banks are (again) helping bulls by keeping the stimulus active until they see higher inflation - according to rumors and speculation of the last three days, ahead of the next ECB meeting this Thursday, October 20, 2016, where Mario Draghi might surprise the market to the upside again, after the reaction to the last meeting was a falling stock market.
This could mean that we might get a very boring low volatility sideways choppy trending market in the next months until maybe even the end of January 2017, as shown on the chart. If these trend lines hold, the next move would be up, therefore a long to at least 2150 is the next logical step in this calm market scenario, if the low of October 13, 2016 holds as key support, producing higher lows as result in the days ahead. The upper end of this projected move higher could end at resistance around 2169-2171, which is the 2. long target after 2150.
Long entry: 2125-2130
1. Target: 2150
2. Target: 2170
Stop Loss: 2120
1. Reward: 20 points
2. Reward: 40 points
Risk: 10 points (from 2130)
The news:
"Draghi Seen Embracing More Before Less 'QE' as Inflation Edges Up"
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-17/draghi-seen-embracing-more-before-less-qe-as-inflation-edges-up
Seventy-eight percent of the 50 economists surveyed by Bloomberg from October. 7-14 forecast the ECB will announce fresh stimulus, and nine in ten of those say it will happen in December at the earliest.
There is a common perception that WSJ reporter Jon Hilsenrath, perhaps one of the most well-connected journalists at the Federal Reserve. Here is his last article for the Wall Street Journal:
"Yellen Cites Benefits to Running Economy Hot for Some Time" (by Jon Hilsenrath)
wsj.com/articles/yellen-cites-benefits-to-running-economy-hot-for-some-time-1476466215
(here a link without a pay wall) morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/financials/TDJNDN_201610148021/yellen-cites-benefits-to-running-economy-hot-for-some-time-update.html
P.S The "S&P 500" close of Friday, October 14 shows a lot of bullish divergence on the mainstream indicators (RSI, Stochastic, CCI) and the "S&P 500" bounced back from outside the standard deviation as shown by the Bollinger Band. Therefore there is still some chance left for the bulls to turn this sinking ship around during this outlined potential sideways trend.
This could mean that we might get a very boring low volatility sideways choppy trending market in the next months until maybe even the end of January 2017, as shown on the chart. If these trend lines hold, the next move would be up, therefore a long to at least 2150 is the next logical step in this calm market scenario, if the low of October 13, 2016 holds as key support, producing higher lows as result in the days ahead. The upper end of this projected move higher could end at resistance around 2169-2171, which is the 2. long target after 2150.
Long entry: 2125-2130
1. Target: 2150
2. Target: 2170
Stop Loss: 2120
1. Reward: 20 points
2. Reward: 40 points
Risk: 10 points (from 2130)
The news:
"Draghi Seen Embracing More Before Less 'QE' as Inflation Edges Up"
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-17/draghi-seen-embracing-more-before-less-qe-as-inflation-edges-up
Seventy-eight percent of the 50 economists surveyed by Bloomberg from October. 7-14 forecast the ECB will announce fresh stimulus, and nine in ten of those say it will happen in December at the earliest.
There is a common perception that WSJ reporter Jon Hilsenrath, perhaps one of the most well-connected journalists at the Federal Reserve. Here is his last article for the Wall Street Journal:
"Yellen Cites Benefits to Running Economy Hot for Some Time" (by Jon Hilsenrath)
wsj.com/articles/yellen-cites-benefits-to-running-economy-hot-for-some-time-1476466215
(here a link without a pay wall) morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/financials/TDJNDN_201610148021/yellen-cites-benefits-to-running-economy-hot-for-some-time-update.html
P.S The "S&P 500" close of Friday, October 14 shows a lot of bullish divergence on the mainstream indicators (RSI, Stochastic, CCI) and the "S&P 500" bounced back from outside the standard deviation as shown by the Bollinger Band. Therefore there is still some chance left for the bulls to turn this sinking ship around during this outlined potential sideways trend.
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