SPX | We are not out of the woods yet
Updated
Everywhere good news, inflation is dropping, the FED is about to pivot. Energy is dropping and every single technical indicator is telling us that we are in a "perfect bottom". Many argue that we are in a similar situation to 2015, at least the price action of the main indices. So let's discuss some arguments and figure this out. First and foremost, price action.
Price action and indicators are ultra-bullish
One of the "bullish" indicators is the well-known Stochastic RSI. Stochastic RSI analyses RSI. The 1M and 2M oscillators are at a bottom. So we expect a swing upwards.
I have circled the RSI in two separate times, in 2015 and now.
RSI has to go through both the 50 mark, and it's WMA. There is significant resistance above.
There is more...
On the peak of the stochastic on 1W, the difference is night and day.
In 2015 we had already easily skipped an "uninverted ribbon", while now we are into significant resistance. This week we had outright rejection.
This tells us that the 1M oscillator will have much trouble swinging upwards, since the 1W oscillator is at it's peak and price rejected on resistance. A successful swing should be verified by many oscillators.
If you look at the 12M chart, you will understand.
2000: Stochastic begins a move downwards, RSI below WMA (resistance).
2015: Stochastic is roaming upwards, RSI above WMA (support).
2022: Stochastic begins a move downwards, RSI below WMA (resistance).
DJI is super strong, and above the cloud and ribbon
Yes it is. But for the last 20 years, DJI stood high in periods of recession.
The only exception is the "Trump run era" I made up. When Trump became president, he did made all sorts of "gifts" to blue chips.
A comparison between DJI/M2SL and SPX/M2SL in the same period.
Right now, DJI is hanging on, amidst a painful recession for most equities.
Also look at energy.
SKEW is inside a falling wedge.
Several weeks ago, it reached an all-time-low. Now, 1M and 2M stochastics are ready for prime time.
The same holds true for VIX
The FED is burning money, at any moment a liquidity crisis can begin.
Ever heard of Wyckoff Distribution? It is the most accurate analysis of stock market. It is the most fundamental behavior. Here are some distributions, in wildly different timeframes. All featuring DJI.
DJI/SILVER - 100 year distribution
DJI*US10Y - 25 year distribution
DXY*DJI - 1 year distribution
I'm out
youtube.com/watch?v=ohhee7oMuwI
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
Price action and indicators are ultra-bullish
One of the "bullish" indicators is the well-known Stochastic RSI. Stochastic RSI analyses RSI. The 1M and 2M oscillators are at a bottom. So we expect a swing upwards.
I have circled the RSI in two separate times, in 2015 and now.
RSI has to go through both the 50 mark, and it's WMA. There is significant resistance above.
There is more...
On the peak of the stochastic on 1W, the difference is night and day.
In 2015 we had already easily skipped an "uninverted ribbon", while now we are into significant resistance. This week we had outright rejection.
This tells us that the 1M oscillator will have much trouble swinging upwards, since the 1W oscillator is at it's peak and price rejected on resistance. A successful swing should be verified by many oscillators.
If you look at the 12M chart, you will understand.
2000: Stochastic begins a move downwards, RSI below WMA (resistance).
2015: Stochastic is roaming upwards, RSI above WMA (support).
2022: Stochastic begins a move downwards, RSI below WMA (resistance).
DJI is super strong, and above the cloud and ribbon
Yes it is. But for the last 20 years, DJI stood high in periods of recession.
The only exception is the "Trump run era" I made up. When Trump became president, he did made all sorts of "gifts" to blue chips.
A comparison between DJI/M2SL and SPX/M2SL in the same period.
Right now, DJI is hanging on, amidst a painful recession for most equities.
Also look at energy.
SKEW is inside a falling wedge.
Several weeks ago, it reached an all-time-low. Now, 1M and 2M stochastics are ready for prime time.
The same holds true for VIX
The FED is burning money, at any moment a liquidity crisis can begin.
Ever heard of Wyckoff Distribution? It is the most accurate analysis of stock market. It is the most fundamental behavior. Here are some distributions, in wildly different timeframes. All featuring DJI.
DJI/SILVER - 100 year distribution
DJI*US10Y - 25 year distribution
DXY*DJI - 1 year distribution
I'm out
youtube.com/watch?v=ohhee7oMuwI
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
Note
What do you think???
Note
I just noticed that VVIX/VIX is actually predicting trend changes in SPX. Make sure to look at this idea above, and tell me what you think!Note
Don't allow them to mess with your head. There are dangers ahead. The big one is not here, yet...
Note
There is a lot of fear-mongering in this post. Please do follow this idea above (The Deception) to relax for a bit. There may be hope for SPX at least short-term... This does not mean we are in the clear. We just might have some time in our hands...
Note
What if...Note
The violation of this trend marks the end of QE. This shows the true effect. I hope you all understand it.With Green and Red arrows, I have marked the points I used to draw the rays.
These long-term rays, prove as significant resistance.
Hitting one of them, was a fundamental reason the Black Monday was so severe.
Note
It's fun when an Editor's Picked idea may turn out wrong...The same behavior, only faster...
Who knows, maybe we will enter a period of inflationary, exponential-movement for equities.
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