SPX Bear Market Rally
Updated
Just like in May 2001 and May 2008, we appear to be in a bear rally. This is difficult to see by just looking at SPX because SPX is manipulated by the money supply; However, if you look at SPX/M2, this becomes more clear.
See the similarities on the RSI and MACD. This seems to suggest that some time before the end of July 2020, we will see a top in the market.
The Fed has stated they are not considering negative interests rates. However, if you notice during the previous two recessions at the top of the bear market rallies marked with the red vertical lines, the Fed had to continue lowering rates. Therefore, if the Fed stays true to their word and does not push rates into negative territory, it's possible that this 2020 Recession/Depression will be significantly worse.
If the Fed does not push rates negative, it's possible that some form of sustained "helicopter money" could be coming.
See the similarities on the RSI and MACD. This seems to suggest that some time before the end of July 2020, we will see a top in the market.
The Fed has stated they are not considering negative interests rates. However, if you notice during the previous two recessions at the top of the bear market rallies marked with the red vertical lines, the Fed had to continue lowering rates. Therefore, if the Fed stays true to their word and does not push rates into negative territory, it's possible that this 2020 Recession/Depression will be significantly worse.
If the Fed does not push rates negative, it's possible that some form of sustained "helicopter money" could be coming.
Note
Update: s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/k/k6Pql1kO.pngI applied 1-yr Bollinger bands with 2std dev. as well as 3, 5 and 8-yr moving averages. Vertical lines are color-coded to each MA and represent when each MA is crossed by the 1-yr MA. The black horizontal lines mark the tops of each bear market rally; It's still hard to say for sure if this top was back in June or if we'll push higher in July.
I also marked Sept. 2020 as a timeframe to watch for a potential cross of the 1-yr and 5-yr MA. If we see that happen, I would consider it further evidence that this idea may play out.
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