US Equities at Critical Confluence: Opportunity Knocking!?!
Updated
Breakout from the downsloping TL on Thursday 10/05 is Bullish. We see the violent churning consolidation of the correction which struggled to find support trading below the 200 DMA in first week of Oct. Price broke above 200 DMA on the 5th, moved above the DTL and also broke out above former resistance at the $3465-75 zone.
After a breakout, we almost always see retest of the breakout point. Why? Those who lost and held on through the downtrend are anxious to get their money out and see the breakout as a chance to exit; Support will be found at the former resistance, from those disappointed to have missed the breakout, and eager to get back in.
We also have a gap to fill from 10/05 at the breakout price $3465; this price is a Critical Convergence of:
The DTL
200 day MA
S/R line
50% Fib retracement of breakout
NB: Note the RISING RSI and increasing relative strength, this is a market in recovery IMO. Earnings are coming soon, and may be pretty darn good!
You may well scalp a few pips off shorting a retest of the convergence, this will likely occur either Monday or Tues latest.
By Tues PM price should be moving higher again, if not sooner. Elliot's 3rd wave will be a ferocious Bear-killing rally from Hell IMO.
FYI Notice I set the bottom of EW Wave 4 at former resistance, turns support ~4470. Pure speculation but EW 4 must not exceed top of EW1.
Bear moves rarely last more than a month, IMO the bull trend is still in place, we had a 7% modest correction lasting from 7 Sep - 4 Oct, four weeks DT, which moved price to next blade of Gann fan, price may be expected to advance at a more leisurely pace into the new year in the lower order of Gann's fan (blue 2:1 band, moved down from the 1:1).
IMO you do NOT want to be short at this juncture; you are betting against all the odds, with completed correction pattern in place (March 21 overlay from previous correction), support at the 200 DMA (has been support for every break since the Covid Crash), and convergence of price and time at a bullish buy zone.
ONE Caveat: Note that all corrections since 2015 have been Zig-Zags! Therefore do not exclude the possibility of a second selloff in late October after double topping!! ANYTHING can happen and probably will, trade with care!
This is my opinion and does not constitute investing advice! Seek that from a licensed bonded insured advisor, LOL;
Do Due Diligence (DDD); GLTA!!
After a breakout, we almost always see retest of the breakout point. Why? Those who lost and held on through the downtrend are anxious to get their money out and see the breakout as a chance to exit; Support will be found at the former resistance, from those disappointed to have missed the breakout, and eager to get back in.
We also have a gap to fill from 10/05 at the breakout price $3465; this price is a Critical Convergence of:
The DTL
200 day MA
S/R line
50% Fib retracement of breakout
NB: Note the RISING RSI and increasing relative strength, this is a market in recovery IMO. Earnings are coming soon, and may be pretty darn good!
You may well scalp a few pips off shorting a retest of the convergence, this will likely occur either Monday or Tues latest.
By Tues PM price should be moving higher again, if not sooner. Elliot's 3rd wave will be a ferocious Bear-killing rally from Hell IMO.
FYI Notice I set the bottom of EW Wave 4 at former resistance, turns support ~4470. Pure speculation but EW 4 must not exceed top of EW1.
Bear moves rarely last more than a month, IMO the bull trend is still in place, we had a 7% modest correction lasting from 7 Sep - 4 Oct, four weeks DT, which moved price to next blade of Gann fan, price may be expected to advance at a more leisurely pace into the new year in the lower order of Gann's fan (blue 2:1 band, moved down from the 1:1).
IMO you do NOT want to be short at this juncture; you are betting against all the odds, with completed correction pattern in place (March 21 overlay from previous correction), support at the 200 DMA (has been support for every break since the Covid Crash), and convergence of price and time at a bullish buy zone.
ONE Caveat: Note that all corrections since 2015 have been Zig-Zags! Therefore do not exclude the possibility of a second selloff in late October after double topping!! ANYTHING can happen and probably will, trade with care!
This is my opinion and does not constitute investing advice! Seek that from a licensed bonded insured advisor, LOL;
Do Due Diligence (DDD); GLTA!!
Note
Futures traded to 4358 overnight, looks to open higher, can expect that futures gap to fill.Hedge funds been betting on lower overnight and need to close those bets.
Would not short below 4360 IMO
Note
Hmmk bulling out of the box, looks trappy, might try a small short on the early lift. Those futurz need to close today, lotta players losing big on those overnight shorts, big houses can drive price down sharply to close their shorts. Tricky traps, be carefull!Note
Hmm although prices are higher in AM trade, market 'feels' weak and I wonder are we headed for a deeper correction? Maybe not over, just take it day by day, useless to commit to any large position either way IMONote
Scalping puts and calls in pm trade. No meaningful direction. Bought in am, sold in pm, bounce & chop.Note
No massive selloff, no panic, gradual step-down approaching the target price... more volatility certainly possible.IMO the main down move is behind us atm...
Note
Well well here we are... picked up a few leaps calls on INTCNote
Amazing, how it filled in my chart, now the question; will the 200 MA hold?!The 0.618 retracement at 4334; control point at 0.786 price 4309, at the Gann fan bandline.
Gonna be buyin in here soon... FYI Tues 19 Oct is 34th anniversary of Black Monday 1987...
Note
Yeah perfect inverted H&S on the Right shoulder exactly at left shoulder price: S&P F 4,346.75 -4.25 -0.10%Trade active
In nov 01 SPY 434, 435 calls, bull spreads short the weekly 442sNote
RTY is firming up, small caps leading market higher. Buying IWM Nov 222 calls, bull spread short the weekly 226sNote
Taking a flier on NQ for going OS, in the 357.5 calls short weekly 365s. Three days ago traded over 365 fgs, will it bounce?Trade active
Closed out most of these spreads, scalped a few pips but yes it feels bearish, another nasty surprise is still possible imoNote
All the spreads went ITM or ATM, took risk off and capped my pips.Can do just anything here, might sell EOD to fill the futures back down to overnight lows.
Could have another sell wave before it pivots IMO, very chancy here, would not short but maybe too early to go long?
We are severely handicapped being trapped in the present...
Note
Do not forget Friday is Triple Witching again...!Note
Hmmk yes look at the bearish reaction to midday rally... This could really sell soon.Correction is probly not yet done...?!
Keep your cash safe and watch for entries.
Note
Triple witching will likely culminate the bear move. Useless to take longs here yet IMO, could get real dicey.Back in cash, scalped a few more pips, might sell again EOD, that has been the pattern. Be safe, hold cash!
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Yeah its bear. Another EOD sell, could dump EOD now, remember futures traded -30 spx overnight...Trade active
Shorted into the EOD sell and closed for another pip in QQQTrade active
Sells like Hell AH, maybe a bear trap but I bought ten QQQ 356 Friday puts. If it gaps down. Probly be deep ITM on Triple witching IMO.We didn't find the bottom yet...
Note
Notice the 1.618 extension is at $4186... could hit this on Friday IMO. No calls until next week!
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