After our last predicted move down, the S&P 500 has been bearish for the past 2-3 weeks, and has fallen all the way to the target trendline.
While there is a high chance that this might lead to a bear market, there is an even higher chance of a small rebound first.
The key will be where the rebound ends.
If the rebound falters before testing the prior highs, then it could well confirm the new downtrend.