We have the very uncommon condition of SPX downtrending 10% over the last month.
It didn't make a flash crash event. It's not the classic jagged correction. Certainly isn't a clean ABC. Day after day, week after week the hour chart has painted lower lows and lower highs.
In this type of break I'd expect to see a rally right after. Traditionally this is a failed new high/head and shoulders like move - but in the modern market a modified spike out of the high is the common outcome.
The min expected retracement would be this.
But these days it's more reasonable to expect something like this.
Massive and critical supports are around 5500. If we get there, make another standard bull trap rally (Very sharp one) and then we break - this might set up a true capitulation event.
It's possible SPX is 20% off the high before the end of Q2.
At which point, I'd be rather bullish. I do like to buy at supports.
It didn't make a flash crash event. It's not the classic jagged correction. Certainly isn't a clean ABC. Day after day, week after week the hour chart has painted lower lows and lower highs.
In this type of break I'd expect to see a rally right after. Traditionally this is a failed new high/head and shoulders like move - but in the modern market a modified spike out of the high is the common outcome.
The min expected retracement would be this.
But these days it's more reasonable to expect something like this.
Massive and critical supports are around 5500. If we get there, make another standard bull trap rally (Very sharp one) and then we break - this might set up a true capitulation event.
It's possible SPX is 20% off the high before the end of Q2.
At which point, I'd be rather bullish. I do like to buy at supports.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.