S&P pushing through resistance
US stock indices are building on yesterday’s tech-driven gains today. Last night, the NASDAQ 100 closed up 1.4% helped by a 3.3% jump in Apple’s stock price, following an upgrade from Bank of America (BoA). Apple has struggled recently after it hit a record high just a tad below $200 in mid-December. It fell close to 10% over the next three weeks, so this vote of confidence from BoA is most welcome. US stock indices have staged an impressive recovery from earlier in the week, and the NASDAQ 100 is once again trading at record levels. This is despite a sharp jump in bond yields this morning which has seen the 10-year Treasury note rally sharply to hit 4.17%. Yesterday, Raphael Bostic was the latest FOMC member to warn investors not to get carried away by the prospect of early rate cuts. His own forecast is for the first Fed cut to come in the third quarter of this year, citing uncertainty due to global geopolitical events. Yet according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 50% probability of a 25 basis point cut in March. They also predict a good chance that the Fed Funds rate will be around 4.5% by the third quarter, suggesting cuts of 100 basis points from current levels. These projections remain markedly wide from the Fed’s own forecasts. Mr Bostic also said that he would want to see more evidence that inflation is on course to hit the Fed’s 2% target before cutting rates as the worst outcome would be having to reverse course and raise soon after a cut. Despite all the warnings and negative news on bond yields, at the time of writing, the S&P 500 is trading around resistance just above 4,800. If it can manage a significant break above here ahead of the weekend, then the S&P could be on course to make its own fresh record high.
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