We will be long-short-long
That is long in the short-term (until the Fed), short in the medium-term (until October), and long in the long-term (until next Spring).
Through some creative analysis, I have us in Primary wave 4, Intermediate wave C, and Minor wave 2.
I expect Minor wave 2 to end tomorrow, likely earlier in the day and then we begin Minor wave 3 up toward 3975. It may take 2-3 days until wave 3 ends. Wave 4 will likely be a day long and I have currently plotted it halfway between the projected movement of wave 3. The final wave 5 will likely last around 2 days. Based on prior wave C movement, the strongest model agreement has wave C lasting 7 days. I figure 7-9 is safe. Based on prior wave 4 movement, the overall move has the most model agreement at 28 days. I think we will fall short of this mark as the Fed rate hike occurs two days prior to this point. We could drop into the rate hike and finish 4 with a wave 5 up after the hike if “it’s not as bad as forecasted,” but most of us are ready for the 100+ basis point future.
Wave 3s ending in 4C3 tend to extend 101% beyond wave 1’s movement 75% of the time (1st Quartile), beyond 112.68% on 50% of the occasions (2nd Quartile / Median) and 25% of the time (3rd Quartile) it will extend 125.81%. Wave 4s ending in 2A4 tend to retrace the wave 3 in which they follow by 29.58% on 75% of occasions (1st Quartile), retrace 54.82% half of the time (2nd Quartile / Median), retrace 84.72% on a quarter of occurrences (3rd Quartile).
We will likely top out above 4000, but how much further remains unknown. Early earnings may be paltry, but earnings forecasts post-Fed rate hike will likely take us down through 3400 over the next 2-3 months.
Through some creative analysis, I have us in Primary wave 4, Intermediate wave C, and Minor wave 2.
I expect Minor wave 2 to end tomorrow, likely earlier in the day and then we begin Minor wave 3 up toward 3975. It may take 2-3 days until wave 3 ends. Wave 4 will likely be a day long and I have currently plotted it halfway between the projected movement of wave 3. The final wave 5 will likely last around 2 days. Based on prior wave C movement, the strongest model agreement has wave C lasting 7 days. I figure 7-9 is safe. Based on prior wave 4 movement, the overall move has the most model agreement at 28 days. I think we will fall short of this mark as the Fed rate hike occurs two days prior to this point. We could drop into the rate hike and finish 4 with a wave 5 up after the hike if “it’s not as bad as forecasted,” but most of us are ready for the 100+ basis point future.
Wave 3s ending in 4C3 tend to extend 101% beyond wave 1’s movement 75% of the time (1st Quartile), beyond 112.68% on 50% of the occasions (2nd Quartile / Median) and 25% of the time (3rd Quartile) it will extend 125.81%. Wave 4s ending in 2A4 tend to retrace the wave 3 in which they follow by 29.58% on 75% of occasions (1st Quartile), retrace 54.82% half of the time (2nd Quartile / Median), retrace 84.72% on a quarter of occurrences (3rd Quartile).
We will likely top out above 4000, but how much further remains unknown. Early earnings may be paltry, but earnings forecasts post-Fed rate hike will likely take us down through 3400 over the next 2-3 months.
All forecasts are based on analysis of past behavior. Prior movements are not always indicative of future movement. Develop the theory, test the theory. Do your own research. Nothing in this analysis constitutes advice. YouTube For More. Good luck!!
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.