Long

SPX near 50 year history; BTC correlation

The S&P 500 (SPX) has been in an upward channel since 1971. The top of the channel was first hit in Nov 1972. It hit the bottom of the channel in Sep 1974 or 1 yr, 10 months. It went to the top of the channel in Jul 1987. It fell halfway to the bottom of the channel in 4 months to Nov 1987. It then went over the top of the channel again in Feb 2000. It went toward the bottom of the channel in Oct 2002 or 2 years, 8 months. It went to the top of the channel in Oct 2007. It went to the bottom of the channel in 17 months or March 2009. It went to the top of the channel in Feb 2020. It's now maybe going to the bottom of the channel again. About 1700 is the bottom of the channel. Could the SPX fall another 30% more than the 30% it has fallen in the last month? I think so based on past history. It could do it very quickly in the next few months as the coronavirus and decline in business activity accelerate. The last time the Fed cut interest rates and stimulated the economy with QE was 12/16/08. Two and a half months later the SPX bottomed about 25% below its value when the Fed cut rates to zero. The Fed cut rates to zero yesterday and started QE again in earnest. The end of May could be the bottom for the SPX about 25% below the current value with past history. BTC has fallen over 50% with the 30% drop in the SPX the last few weeks. Expect Bitcoin to fall another 50% from current values if the SPX falls another 25-30%. Then both markets can begin another rise to ATH's. JMHO

shubbs

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