SPX and Nasdaq for 1-2Q 2023
*Fundamental Analysis*
February market perspective summary
In January, the market started with the Fed's interest rate freeze and China's reopening expectations, and as the performance of worrying tech stocks passed smoothly, upward pressure eased and a rebound came out.
In February, the gap between market participants and the Fed widened.
Market participants expect the Fed to finish raising rates by 25bp x 2 times after judging that inflation is over.
However, China's reopening is making room for inflation to pick up again and the US labor market is still strong, the Fed cannot easily be complacent and stop raising interest rates.
I expect a price correction to occur as the gap between the Fed and market participants closes on the Fed side.
After that, if the gap is closed after mid-February, it is expected that an additional rebound in March will be possible as interest rate freezes and China's reopening are the story again.
In other words, this February, rather than aggressively building additional positions, we will respond with a strategy of maintaining our remaining positions and cash ratio and buying again in case of a downward correction.
*Technichal Analysis*
The view that the US economy is relatively healthy, It is good to get position USD from now on as a hedging of the recession.
February market perspective summary
In January, the market started with the Fed's interest rate freeze and China's reopening expectations, and as the performance of worrying tech stocks passed smoothly, upward pressure eased and a rebound came out.
In February, the gap between market participants and the Fed widened.
Market participants expect the Fed to finish raising rates by 25bp x 2 times after judging that inflation is over.
However, China's reopening is making room for inflation to pick up again and the US labor market is still strong, the Fed cannot easily be complacent and stop raising interest rates.
I expect a price correction to occur as the gap between the Fed and market participants closes on the Fed side.
After that, if the gap is closed after mid-February, it is expected that an additional rebound in March will be possible as interest rate freezes and China's reopening are the story again.
In other words, this February, rather than aggressively building additional positions, we will respond with a strategy of maintaining our remaining positions and cash ratio and buying again in case of a downward correction.
*Technichal Analysis*
The view that the US economy is relatively healthy, It is good to get position USD from now on as a hedging of the recession.
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