Idea for SPY:
As of now, OpEx did not disappoint. We are in a descending channel and closed below prev. pivot range which sets a bearish tone for Monday. However, we may rally to the top of the channel for FOMC 22nd and still be bearish. DCL expected 28th~ Over 4485 must abandon short.
(Over 4500 and back in the wedge would return bullish)
Price had painted an IH&S structure, over the 50DMA but failed to breakout. We remain over the 50 DMA and there is a risk of Double Bottom.
However, price is now resting right above 'Quality Long Stop', which is a logical stop level for longs who might have bought at the previous IH&S, ready for an overnight stop hunt. Pleased to not be in an overnight long seeing this. The close was actually a Daily Cycle failure, signally weakness in the Dominant Cycle.
In the Macro Layer:
DXY and 
GOLD shows underlying risk-off.
The concern is that bonds have yet to react, or USTs are in fact being sold when we might expect them to be bought during risk-off:
The bottom line is that the Dominant Cycle indicates weakness, and with a reasonable SL, can confidently remain in short whilst in the descending channel.
GLHF
- DPT
As of now, OpEx did not disappoint. We are in a descending channel and closed below prev. pivot range which sets a bearish tone for Monday. However, we may rally to the top of the channel for FOMC 22nd and still be bearish. DCL expected 28th~ Over 4485 must abandon short.
(Over 4500 and back in the wedge would return bullish)
Price had painted an IH&S structure, over the 50DMA but failed to breakout. We remain over the 50 DMA and there is a risk of Double Bottom.
However, price is now resting right above 'Quality Long Stop', which is a logical stop level for longs who might have bought at the previous IH&S, ready for an overnight stop hunt. Pleased to not be in an overnight long seeing this. The close was actually a Daily Cycle failure, signally weakness in the Dominant Cycle.
In the Macro Layer:
DXY and GOLD shows underlying risk-off.The concern is that bonds have yet to react, or USTs are in fact being sold when we might expect them to be bought during risk-off:
The bottom line is that the Dominant Cycle indicates weakness, and with a reasonable SL, can confidently remain in short whilst in the descending channel.
GLHF
- DPT
Note
Price made an A down on the 16th on shorter TFs, then stayed within the daily range (Failed C Against the Pivot). This is known as a 'Treacherous Trade' which can easily result in a deadcat bounce and reversal, which did indeed occur after failing to breakout of the daily range.On the 17th, price made an A down below the opening range, created a new low, snapped back to POC then settled lower in a DCF:
4400 seems to be the July pivot. It is said that the range of the 1st 2 weeks of July creates a pivot range which is statistically significant for the rest of the year. Price may make an effort to break into this range: 4290-4400. 4400 test seems likely by EOM.
Note
Price made 2 honest efforts to break back into the rising wedge off of the 50 DMA (failed IH&S), was rejected, and settled in a DCF, which gives a bearish tone.Note
Notice how price bounce off 4300 and closed right under the descending channel:4290-4400 is the July Pivot Range and breaking below 4290~ would be a certain short. It bounced once, but breaking below and we are looking at 3700 IMO.
Note
It would appear that FOMC was not what bond market participants had expected:
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.