S&P500: Critical top ahead
Updated
We have clear technical indications that the S&P500 has ended its longterm impulsive uptrend in 1999-2000.
Since then we have embarked in a series of corrective waves, with very clear fear spikes surrounding intense stock market crashes.
Rgmov helps filter the noise and tells me that the current advance is short lived, while time at mode suggests that we might see a rally emerge from this sideways range that might extend to 2202.62 (based on the projection from the low of the last 5 week low that wasn't penetrated by sellers as of today, up into the mode, which is 2085.44.
Any fast advance from this area, or a weekly bar with a low higher than this price on close will confirm the rally.
The Elliott Wave analysts might consider the expanding formation on chart as a terminal wedge, and if the completion of the last portion of it triggers a sharp decline then it's possible that we witness a retrace of the whole advance since October 2013, in 1/4 of the time it took to climb to the top.
In the short term, I'll be looking for intraday opportunities on the long side, but, I suggest watching the price action once we approach the 2202 target for the top.
Good luck,
Ivan.
Since then we have embarked in a series of corrective waves, with very clear fear spikes surrounding intense stock market crashes.
Rgmov helps filter the noise and tells me that the current advance is short lived, while time at mode suggests that we might see a rally emerge from this sideways range that might extend to 2202.62 (based on the projection from the low of the last 5 week low that wasn't penetrated by sellers as of today, up into the mode, which is 2085.44.
Any fast advance from this area, or a weekly bar with a low higher than this price on close will confirm the rally.
The Elliott Wave analysts might consider the expanding formation on chart as a terminal wedge, and if the completion of the last portion of it triggers a sharp decline then it's possible that we witness a retrace of the whole advance since October 2013, in 1/4 of the time it took to climb to the top.
In the short term, I'll be looking for intraday opportunities on the long side, but, I suggest watching the price action once we approach the 2202 target for the top.
Good luck,
Ivan.
Trade closed: target reached
Looks like I was more or less on track.
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