Rangebound Wyckoff Accumulation?
Updated
Prices go oversold on Wednesday and overbought on Thursday. Welcome to the new normal. Good luck with it!
Looks like we may be entering Wyckoff accumulation phase. Price has been rangebound this year. Notice that we are at same price as May 23 2022.
Near the end of a bear market, prices will usually suffer a final capitulation. This might not occur for weeks or months yet.
VIX spikes >40, share prices drop to a new low and panic ensues. Then back up the callmobile and rent-a-stonk.
This is a very likely scenario, trade with caution. We are at the 50% retracement here, this is the most common bear retrace.
VIX <18 and Bolly bands contract, could be setup for another leg down. It always drops when you least expect it, so expect it.
GLTA
Looks like we may be entering Wyckoff accumulation phase. Price has been rangebound this year. Notice that we are at same price as May 23 2022.
Near the end of a bear market, prices will usually suffer a final capitulation. This might not occur for weeks or months yet.
VIX spikes >40, share prices drop to a new low and panic ensues. Then back up the callmobile and rent-a-stonk.
This is a very likely scenario, trade with caution. We are at the 50% retracement here, this is the most common bear retrace.
VIX <18 and Bolly bands contract, could be setup for another leg down. It always drops when you least expect it, so expect it.
GLTA
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REJECTED AT 0.50 FIBONote
Another chopfest, extremely tight range, 1$ on SPY. No clear direction. Sitting sidelined.Note
Starts to look damned bullish. Printing the curve. Maybe HOTW? Stay tuned.Note
Worth a read. Scroll down to "Accumulation Events" and notice how the June 2022 low corresponds to a Selling Climax; the Jul/Aug rally was the Automatic Rally that defines the Trading Range (TR); and the October low made a Secondary Test (aka Fear Test). Notice how that subsequent rallies and retracements have moved within the TR for past months? In some bears, a Spring Test low marks the final low of the bear market, while in other cases, the accumulation TR simply produces lower volume LPS reactions that give way to Sign of Strength, SOS and ushers in new Markup Phase, aka, Bull Market (Schematic 2); this scenario seems more likely, if we get a 'soft landing'.school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method
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NB: " Early on in Phase B, the price swings tend to be wide and accompanied by high volume. As the professionals absorb the supply, however, the volume on downswings within the TR tends to diminish. When it appears that supply is likely to have been exhausted, the stock is ready for Phase C.Phase C: It is in Phase C that the stock price goes through a decisive test of the remaining supply, allowing the “smart money” operators to ascertain whether the stock is ready to be marked up. As noted above, a spring is a price move below the support level of the TR (established in Phases A and B) that quickly reverses and moves back into the TR. It is an example of a bear trap because the drop below support appears to signal resumption of the downtrend. In reality, though, this marks the beginning of a new uptrend, trapping the late sellers (bears). "
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IMO we find ourselves in Phase B>C transition. Wide volatile fluctuations have diminished. We may still get a test of lows; June is typically seasonally weak. After a test of LPS we can expect transition to Phase D > E, Markup:" Phase D: If we are correct in our analysis, what should follow is the consistent dominance of demand over supply. This is evidenced by a pattern of advances (SOSs) on widening price spreads and increasing volume, as well as reactions (LPSs) on smaller spreads and diminished volumes. During Phase D, the price will move at least to the top of the TR. LPSs in this phase are generally excellent places to initiate or add to profitable long positions.
Phase E: In Phase E, the stock leaves the TR, demand is in full control and the markup is obvious to everyone. Setbacks, such as shakeouts and more typical reactions, are usually short-lived. New, higher-level TRs comprising both profit-taking and acquisition of additional shares (“re-accumulation”) by large operators can occur at any point in Phase E. These TRs are sometimes called “stepping stones” on the way to even higher price targets. "
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Finally, NB: Although similar patterns do recur, the ball never bounces the same way exactly twice; it would be a mistake to imagine that the 2008 crash will print again in 2023:"Rule 1: The market and individual securities never behave in the same way twice. Rather, trends unfold through a broad array of similar price patterns that show infinite variations in size, detail, and extension. Each incarnation changes just enough from prior patterns to surprise and confuse market participants. "
investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/070715/making-money-wyckoff-way.asp
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Exhaustion gap up 4/18 forming AH. 4200 may be at or near local top and end of run. 4300 defined top of TR last August. We in Phase B of this cycle and can expect more volatility chop & drop in weeks and months ahead.Short into the open gap and cover on the fill. I won't be taking longs after the fill, it might drift higher but R/R is poor at this price. GLTA
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Trade executed as planned. Green on day. Beige book Weds and PMI, jobs on Thursday could tank or bank it.Staying cash until a setup presents.
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Gap down filled like the gap up before it, and stayed up all day to eod like the gap up filled and stayed down. Another mirror day.Had similar last week, Thurs chart flipped over painted Friday's PA. Price essentially unchanged now for weeks.
Depending on PMI and jobs Thurs AM, this rally may continue. Close all out, banked small gains from O/N poots and took the gapfill in a few calls. No position.
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Went AH and picked up ten QQQ/SPY poots 1DTE. TSLA missed, probably get more weakness from darling fail.Note
O/N breakdown is significant; the bear flag from past month has finally broken; look for a lift back to TL then short like Hell, ref Murphy fig 4-10a, link here:cdn.preterhuman.net/texts/unsorted2/Stock books 029/John J Murphy - Technical Analysis Of The Financial Markets.pdf
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Closed all shorts in open up 150% on the 0dte poots. Look for gapfill and re-entry.Trade active
Shorted EOD. Shaping up like a big dump incoming. Triple witching Fri.Trade active
Closed shorts in early weakness. What a tight rangebound nothing burger of a day.Consolidating for a move imo. Likely lower, maybe not.
Cash over weekend.
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Shorted EOD, small position, looks to be profitable in premarket, close if it is, because:"The moment I wake up
Before I put on my makeup
I say a little prayer for you"
Evry day for a month we been hoping and betting it will crack, but it resists and resists and holds in a most agonizing manner. Rangebound; will it finally crack? Or just chop and grind all summer?
June swoon; summer bummer if techs miss this week.
Be ready, say a little prayer!
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Banked the gains on AM weakness. Watch & wait. Short the rallies.Trade active
Shorted mid-day and watched with joy. Closed all EOD and jumped into cawls at 4:05 in AH session on ER jump.MSFT banged out a win, GOOG also.
Took a strangle on GOOG eod which may breakeven if I get lucky. Strangles are expensive and only win if there is a Big Move.
See note and link to another Wyckoff idea below; kudos Eloquent
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Bear market rallies are ferocious and brief. After strong selloff a relief rally is expected and normal. Better not to hold through these, eh?
Look at divergence in small caps and RSI in advancing issues.
Move up into supply zone on lower volume. This is whipsaw.
EW theorists will likely call this move a '2nd Wave.' Let's see...
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Double top; megaphone. Gap at 4218 may fill. Short like Hell if it does.Note
Gap wants to fill.
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