Multi-Year Elliott Wave Forecast for the US Stock Market
Updated
The channel break down indicates that the top is near. The pattern appears to be an incomplete Double Combination. Since the pattern is still somewhat incomplete it is a good idea to be careful making any trades on this pattern until it is confirmed. Confirmation should come sometime in 2017. It is very likely that if this pattern is correct we are in the midst of forming a non-limiting triangle which will resolve in 2017 and complete the Double Combination. This is the most likely scenario because Double Combination tend to almost always end with a non-limiting triangle which produce false-break downs from the parallel channel. The implications of the Double Combination completing are that we should retrace from 61.8%-80% of Wave (b), which means the S&P could go as low as 1000 by the time Wave (c) completes.
The overall pattern starting all the way back in the year 2000 is most likely either a triangle, a flat, or a Double Three where Wave (b) is actually Wave (x). The only thing that is clear is that we are in a :3:3 pattern so far, which still leaves a lot of variability in what could come next. In all of these cases it is fairly bullish when it completes because Wave (b) is running. I think that the most likely pattern is going to be a Triangle due to Wave (b) apparently being a double combination which generally do not retrace very far and would set us up nicely for a running triangle.
I am going to be keeping an eye on this chart and if this smaller non-limiting triangle holds up i'll be looking to open some large put options in late 2017 when we finally get a break down. Fundamentally there is major systemic risk throughout all of the stock and bond markets so I am for the most part going to avoid taking any long positions other than in the very short term. The upside from here seems very limited if we can manage to hold the high around 2100. Junk bond yields increasing is also usually an early warning sign that all bonds could be bubbling. With the risk of default on most types of loans from Corporate, to Mortgages, to Student, to Car and Personal loans increasing, the credit system is being pushed to its limits. Anyone with variable rates are soon going to see their interest rates rise because the FED plans to gradually increase interest rates after 7 years of all time lows. Seeing
USOIL at lows not seen for over a decade is not good for the health of the oil companies either, which our stock market depends on very heavily. It currently costs more to get oil out of the ground in many places than it is worth, which means that many of these oil companies are racking up massive amounts of debt in which they cannot repay and will soon default on their massive loans unless there is a major change in the direction of oil, and fast. Not to mention all the non-corporate loans that people are struggling to pay back with very high risk of default and which will only see increasing default rates during a period of economic slow-down and recession.
Many prominent investors and banks are also calling for a recession here so there is ample reason to be fearful. The stock market has had a very good run but now it's time for a major correction. This run was built on low interest rates and bad debt and now it is time for all of that to collapse.
The overall pattern starting all the way back in the year 2000 is most likely either a triangle, a flat, or a Double Three where Wave (b) is actually Wave (x). The only thing that is clear is that we are in a :3:3 pattern so far, which still leaves a lot of variability in what could come next. In all of these cases it is fairly bullish when it completes because Wave (b) is running. I think that the most likely pattern is going to be a Triangle due to Wave (b) apparently being a double combination which generally do not retrace very far and would set us up nicely for a running triangle.
I am going to be keeping an eye on this chart and if this smaller non-limiting triangle holds up i'll be looking to open some large put options in late 2017 when we finally get a break down. Fundamentally there is major systemic risk throughout all of the stock and bond markets so I am for the most part going to avoid taking any long positions other than in the very short term. The upside from here seems very limited if we can manage to hold the high around 2100. Junk bond yields increasing is also usually an early warning sign that all bonds could be bubbling. With the risk of default on most types of loans from Corporate, to Mortgages, to Student, to Car and Personal loans increasing, the credit system is being pushed to its limits. Anyone with variable rates are soon going to see their interest rates rise because the FED plans to gradually increase interest rates after 7 years of all time lows. Seeing
USOIL at lows not seen for over a decade is not good for the health of the oil companies either, which our stock market depends on very heavily. It currently costs more to get oil out of the ground in many places than it is worth, which means that many of these oil companies are racking up massive amounts of debt in which they cannot repay and will soon default on their massive loans unless there is a major change in the direction of oil, and fast. Not to mention all the non-corporate loans that people are struggling to pay back with very high risk of default and which will only see increasing default rates during a period of economic slow-down and recession.Many prominent investors and banks are also calling for a recession here so there is ample reason to be fearful. The stock market has had a very good run but now it's time for a major correction. This run was built on low interest rates and bad debt and now it is time for all of that to collapse.
Note
I want to add this chart here. It's interesting to see how the REIT market and the Stock Market are both in relatively the same Elliott wave count, with the waves ending at roughly the same points in time as each other. This could mean a very dire situation for the US economy with both the Stock market and the Housing markets collapsing nationwide.
Note
The 3D chart is currently looking very bearish. There is a hidden bearish divergence on the AO, a bearish shark harmonic, a bearish divergent bar at the peak, the AO is also turning red, and the price has already started to reverse a bit. Also on the line chart above were bouncing off the top trendline of the triangle that I have drawn. We also failed to make a higher high and are now starting to form a triple top.
All things considered it looks very bearish and this could potentially be a very long-term top for the stock market. It may be a good idea to look into buying some VXX and related ETNs if you'd like to profit heavily from this potential crisis without having to short.
Note
On the 4H It looks like we are in a triple combination which is wave-c of the larger triangle above. The entire move definitely does not appear to be impulsive at this time so more upside from here is very unlikely on a larger time-frame, however, for the next month it looks like we could form into a smaller triangle and this would most likely be the bottom of wave-b of that triangle.
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