Long

Repeat $SPX $SPY $SPX500 January to April move

Updated

I call these types of patterns "S-Curves" and they are similar to AB = CD movements. The pattern usually ends how it began, with a violent bottom replicated as a violent top. The next FOMC is not until DEC 11, and DEC 12 is the next "promise" of when the FED will decide not to engage in any more overnight repo operations to the tune of $80-$120 Billion / day.

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The next FOMC date for Q4 is December 11. We haven't even had the small correction that happens in the first half of November, just melting up and up. I suspect after this week the fire hose of buying will be turned on once again.

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Overnight repo operations show that September was the first FED intervention since 2008.

fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPONTSYD

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Good article to understand why we are buying into all of this. The banks have run out of excess reserves WAY in advance of the FED expectations.... because they spent all the money in investments of securities and bonds! Go figure! This is a stealth bailout of banks again with no accountability.

advisorperspectives.com/articles/2019/09/25/understanding-the-great-repo-fiasco

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Broke the channel this morning + China news @ 12:45 EST today.

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DJI support at trailing Daily ATR stop below.

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With the selloff yesterday, seasonality is back on track. I suspect a move up Friday. Swooping down on the final days of this small seasonal timed pullback is indicative of a coming bullish move.

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Watch for the backtest of the NOV 19 gap (and fill) before proceeding higher this morning

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Tariff man is back. We filled the open weekend gap from NOV 22. Big support here if we can hold it.

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Seems like a clear buy off Daily ATR stop, and Month CAM S3 + Month Pivot. The fact that this is all happening on these supports and pivots right at the beginning of the month tells me they may carry this back up again.

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Tariff man strikes at the heart of the.... World! This rally was stopped dead Monday and we have now back tested the big breakout neckline.

I think we still have legs to go up the rest of the year

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Inflows only just went positive as well. twitter.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1201929609526333440

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NFP saves the day

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REPO operations extended to last week of JAN. There is a point when you cannot deny that these things are lining up together on purpose. newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements/repurchase-agreement-operational-details

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1.618 FIB extension is right inside the target zone. We may get a full dump back to the 200 DMA once the FED repo ends.

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Back on track to targets.

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Big level here on ES, took a lot of profit off the table again.

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Eurodollar futures are already showing advanced signal of a top.

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SPX500 hits 3314 target as DJI futures hit Month CAM R4. There is another smaller S-Curve at work here on DJI futures. I like curves within curves.

This is a high value put/short trade right here.

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Curve within a curve. Right on Month CAM R4 and Week CAM R4. This doesn't happen often like this with the amount of overlap.

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VIX Daily.

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I believe we have temporarily peaked out. I may start another idea on the short trade after this.

If you look back about 15 years, every 2-3 years there seems to be a selloff triggered right around JAN 20 and lasts until FEB 5. We may repeat this again in 2020. I am hoping for a 5-10% pullback here.

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Possible 5th of a 5th wave here for elliot wave fans (I am not a fan 😅 )

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Closer look on H8 chart. 5th of 5th wave.

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I took another look at SPX futures today, and there is a chance... a small chance... that we have been melting up in yet another S-Curve for the past 1-2 weeks. If that is true then the original upper target of 3400 is still in play.

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We are getting a second chance at this trade

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VIX full breakout

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This was the correction we were always supposed to have but the PBOC interrupted it. S-Curves start and end violently.

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Nearing final target of the breakout trendline backtest.

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DJI, DAX, Russell 200 are all on the 200 DMAs. We may have one more washout day tomorrow before this ends.

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Full Year CAM R3 to Year CAM S3 movement here. Huge level on Month S3 + Year S3. Does it hold or do margin clerks take us down to a -10% day?

The behavior of the markets right now is indicative of something inherently wrong with the system. Bond market is at collapse.

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Final possible targets below for SPY at the FEB 2018 buy locations. This represents the 50% level for the entire year of 2018. tradingview.com/chart/R14dmJJB/

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Getting the pitchfork bottom rail level I have been looking at for 2 years, and 200 WMA for DJI futures.

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Russell 2000 futures break 2019 low. Wild.

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Super important metric today that has only been touched in 4 selloffs in a decade. Before 2008 the last time was 2001.

Percent stocks above 200 Daily Moving Average. This is the final oversold metric and the big one.

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200 WMA tagged. Top to bottom is about 25%.

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Full AB=CD correction for NQ

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Mega FEB 2018 ES value area. This is the buy zone.

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DJI hits megaphone, wipes out Trump presidency in 4 weeks.

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SPX strikes DEC 2018 low. If they wanted to put in a bottom, this would be the place to do it. Not much hope though.

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Little further for DAX to retest 2000 and 2007 highs.

mortdiggiddy

Find the edge.

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Related publications

Seasonality Trader

by mortdiggiddy

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