The above chart is clearly satire, but that type of price action is an actual possibility (in terms of breaking new highs and falling afterwards, who knows).
Markets have always done what people never expect, and it NEVER fails to surprise me.
Strong bias on one side of a market is very risky business, and every time I have a bias, I'm reminded of how important it is to eliminate it. At the same time, conviction is where you can make a lot of money. The challenge is differentiating the two things, and knowing when to change your mind. To avoid being dogmatic, you need to identify exact levels (in life or trading) that go against your plan, or beliefs.
Markets have always done what people never expect, and it NEVER fails to surprise me.
Strong bias on one side of a market is very risky business, and every time I have a bias, I'm reminded of how important it is to eliminate it. At the same time, conviction is where you can make a lot of money. The challenge is differentiating the two things, and knowing when to change your mind. To avoid being dogmatic, you need to identify exact levels (in life or trading) that go against your plan, or beliefs.
Note
How we doing so far? I am fully onboard with this playing at now. I think the high pivot point will be around 3600 - 3700, where the S&P has a meaningful correction again. Until then, there are a lot of stocks that will continue doing well, and a lot of stocks that will breakdown from resistance. It's a mine field out there. Now that we're trading at 3200, I expect some profit taking here. I bought puts on the S&P 500 on Friday's close and trimmed *some* positions. I am still long some stocks and I do not plan on selling them. In fact, I am looking to add and buy more on weakness.
Note
We are now about 30-40 points away from revisiting all time highs.Note
I'm updating this post as this is my next best guess for price action going forward based on market structure. Not a whole lot of value in these "forecasts".. but I like to draw out what I think we could see to prepare mentallyOdds are this will be completely wrong, but I think market ultimately has crash risk into 2600 in the next 12 months followed by consolidation in this range.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.