2025 S&P500 Forecast Guess by Tim West
I included 2024's guess that I posted here in January last year which turned out to be quite accurate in terms of "action" and "direction". The volatility the market saw with wild swings back and forth was outlined on here as we reached the clusters of guesses from Wall Street estimates.
This is an old technique that I learned from Ken Fisher of Fisher Investments and from Forbes Magazine. His wise and witty insights were the foundation of my investment strategy when I started investing in the mid 1980's.
Basically, when you see what the "market expectations" are for a market like the
SPX500 or S&P500 Index, you can then figure out what needs to happen to get the market to their estimates and realize the market will go to somewhere else other than their guesses.
With 2024 showing a majority of "less than historical average" forecasts and more downside forecasts, it was quite clear that the market could easily outpace or outperform those forecasts.
Now that 2025 shows that analysts are looking for an average year or more, I think it is safe to say that we won't get an average year.
We now have a rising US dollar, which hurts overseas earnings. We also have higher energy prices which also hurts earnings. And yet we have plenty of cash on the sidelines as everyone who missed the rally is hoping to buy on a decline and others are just happy to earn 5% on their cash balances thanks to an ultra-tight Fed (compared to the last 20 years).
So, I expect more of the same that we have seen in January and I also expect sharp declines if we get any moves above the highs and up towards 6500 on the SPX.
This is an old technique that I learned from Ken Fisher of Fisher Investments and from Forbes Magazine. His wise and witty insights were the foundation of my investment strategy when I started investing in the mid 1980's.
Basically, when you see what the "market expectations" are for a market like the
SPX500 or S&P500 Index, you can then figure out what needs to happen to get the market to their estimates and realize the market will go to somewhere else other than their guesses. With 2024 showing a majority of "less than historical average" forecasts and more downside forecasts, it was quite clear that the market could easily outpace or outperform those forecasts.
Now that 2025 shows that analysts are looking for an average year or more, I think it is safe to say that we won't get an average year.
We now have a rising US dollar, which hurts overseas earnings. We also have higher energy prices which also hurts earnings. And yet we have plenty of cash on the sidelines as everyone who missed the rally is hoping to buy on a decline and others are just happy to earn 5% on their cash balances thanks to an ultra-tight Fed (compared to the last 20 years).
So, I expect more of the same that we have seen in January and I also expect sharp declines if we get any moves above the highs and up towards 6500 on the SPX.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Subscribe to my indicator package KEY HIDDEN LEVELS $10/mo or $100/year and join me in the trading room KEY HIDDEN LEVELS here at TradingView.com
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.