Presidential Elections and the Stock Market vs Gold
Updated
Going back to 1980....Obama's performance (S&P500 vs Gold) was the smallest change over 8 years, which describes the very lackluster economic performance we have seen in the US over the last 8 years.
George Bush Junior had the same performance in 8 years (roughly) as Carter had in 4 years, almost -75%.
I would add that Bush inherited the leverage in the banking system from Clinton where the Gov't allowed banks to lever from 11:1 up to 40:1, thus creating the bubble. Bush cut the leverage back down to 11:1, and in the process, popped the asset-lending bubble. Clearly, it was a much better idea to cut the leverage down slowly over a period of YEARS instead of doing it so fast.
Capacity to lend or borrow is what determines the fate of countries. France was bankrupt in 1974. The world decided to let France borrow money based on the price of gold being a multiple of the current price and then let gold float free. So, gold went from $35 to $800 and France was saved. Banks have the chains. The Gov't, though, sets the length of the chains and how tight they are placed around your neck.
Look back and see on this chart which presidents are widely hailed as successful Presidents... and you can see it is when the stock market goes up versus Gold.
Reagan +262%, Clinton +299%
There's plenty more observations to be made from this chart, but wanted you to see it fresh from the idea stage where we have been chatting about it in the KEY HIDDEN LEVELS CHAT ROOM. If you have something to add, put your comments down and we can have an interesting history lesson.
Every day in the markets is a new day and new discoveries and patterns make it very interesting indeed.
I hope you have had a good year in the markets and I look forward to putting together my forecast for 2017 for the S&P500. My last 5 years of predictions have had quite a level of interest and quite a level of accuracy. It's a high standard to maintain.
My best to you,
Tim
December 15, 2016 12:16PM EST
George Bush Junior had the same performance in 8 years (roughly) as Carter had in 4 years, almost -75%.
I would add that Bush inherited the leverage in the banking system from Clinton where the Gov't allowed banks to lever from 11:1 up to 40:1, thus creating the bubble. Bush cut the leverage back down to 11:1, and in the process, popped the asset-lending bubble. Clearly, it was a much better idea to cut the leverage down slowly over a period of YEARS instead of doing it so fast.
Capacity to lend or borrow is what determines the fate of countries. France was bankrupt in 1974. The world decided to let France borrow money based on the price of gold being a multiple of the current price and then let gold float free. So, gold went from $35 to $800 and France was saved. Banks have the chains. The Gov't, though, sets the length of the chains and how tight they are placed around your neck.
Look back and see on this chart which presidents are widely hailed as successful Presidents... and you can see it is when the stock market goes up versus Gold.
Reagan +262%, Clinton +299%
There's plenty more observations to be made from this chart, but wanted you to see it fresh from the idea stage where we have been chatting about it in the KEY HIDDEN LEVELS CHAT ROOM. If you have something to add, put your comments down and we can have an interesting history lesson.
Every day in the markets is a new day and new discoveries and patterns make it very interesting indeed.
I hope you have had a good year in the markets and I look forward to putting together my forecast for 2017 for the S&P500. My last 5 years of predictions have had quite a level of interest and quite a level of accuracy. It's a high standard to maintain.
My best to you,
Tim
December 15, 2016 12:16PM EST
Note
I do think this is one of the most interesting charts I have published here at TradingView. My next most favorite is the Fed Chairman pattern that shows what the stock market does in the years after they get appointed. The very high odds of a sideways market over 5 years was an extremely interesting point that no one seemed to be talking about and frankly STILL AREN'T TALKING ABOUT. Feel free to pass on the link to my charts at Twitter or other places, like LinkedIn or Facebook, and get the conversation going . These are important points to discuss and I look forward to your questions and comments.
Note
I love this chart - to show a very unique way of looking at the stock market... the "relative return" of stocks to gold.It is Very easy to understand.
If stocks do better than Gold, people like the President.
If gold does better than stocks, people DON'T LIKE the president.
If people want to HIDE THEIR MONEY IN THE GROUND, I don't think that's a vote for the President's ability to lead and to drive growth.
Share this with a friend and invite them to TradingView to read it for themselves. Share your wealth of knowledge and bring a light of awareness and truth to others. That's my way and TradingView's way too.
Tim 9/11/2017 9:17AM EST
Note
Recently, 
XAUUSD or Gold has started outperforming the 
SPX500 
SPY and is making a few of us worry that the great engine of wealth creation could be sputtering from the lack of willingness to take risk. When GOLD outperforms the stock market, people are running from risk and afraid of the world. The recent sharp drop in the ratio has brought the stock market back down to decent levels where the tax law changed here in the USA which REWARDS risk-taking by providing accelerated depreciation for making new investments in plant & equipment. Stay tuned. With events in China (coming down on Hong Kong), Argentina (socialist takes back over) and England's newly elected PM is ready to mix things up and drive for Brexit, with or without a deal.
As the election nears, this ratio will alert us all to who will be the likely winner. The better the
SPX does relative to XAUUSD, the more likely the incumbent will win.Tim 8/18/2019. 3:54PM EST Sunday afternoon
Note
The Uptrend from the Election is still in-tact, but is being tested.
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