SPX setup for traps

Updated

Another wedge structure like last week, and like last week, we broke out of it overnight. A retest of 3900-3980 with Jobs numbers at 8:30 and then pump on open is what I'm thinking, but it doesn't mean it's GOING to happen. I do like the idea of testing the daily 18ma currently sitting around 4k - this would be one way to get there. Good luck!

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Closer view

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welp, jobs numbers came out and we're just going up, so watch the 18 daily ma at about 4k area for resistance. I still think a test of it and rejection is possible. Above the 18ma (4k) on a daily close and we're going higher. Maybe the 5th wave is in on futures.

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daily chart with 18ma target

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something doesn't look right, we could have a sell down still and then pump up tomorrow, I wouldn't do anything until i see levels I want to see - 3900 and under for a long trade (with a tight stop), or 4k for a short (with a tight stop). I have errands I need to do so I'll update when I can. Good luck!

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also noticed this structure, watch for this was well.

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possible target area reached, taking a shot with tight stop. looks like a cup and handle, but I don't know.

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shouldn't get any lower than that, tested trendline from wedge. 4k probably by today or tomorrow considering how much retail is short equities. Good luck

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equity put/call ratio ycharts.com/indicators/cboe_equity_put_call_ratio

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at resistance here, took a little profit just in case this is a bull trap now....

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AAPL looking like a C of 4 - be cautions if long. I put stops in profit. If they pullback to 3900 by tomorrow (weekly 18ma), it would rek most traders and likely trap bears before the move up to 4k (if that happens, I still think it will).

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if the 4th wave C was the high, we should see selling all day from now for 3. Personally thinking this is correct and flipped short for a day trade.

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transports relatively weak today. This is looking innocent enough but I have a feeling we'll gap down hard tomorrow. Could be wrong and that's fine. Small short position for overnight

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Spinning top candle on spy - indecision. It's possible that the cluster of MA's above are too obvious a target. I think lower BB will be hit first, and probably tomorrow.

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Equity put/call dropped today to .68 ycharts.com/indicators/cboe_equity_put_call_ratio

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Index put/call dropped as well - ycharts.com/indicators/cboe_spx_put_call_ratio

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PPI came in hot. Watch the trendline, if it breaks it's a solid short. Still should find support at 3900 with the weekly 18 ma. A close below 3900 would break the weekly 18ma support and the larger bias into next week would be down.

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Daily 18ma - market got close, but PPI slammed it before it touched.

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potential target if it's a bear flag is 3800

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i dislike fast moves up or down and this is why. Potentially they can push it to the 18ma and then reverse it again. watch for traps

the_sunship

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