S&P 500 IndexShort
Technical Analysis Suggests Depression in the United States.
This is a monthly candlestick chart of the SP500 from the 2008-09 financial crisis to the all time highs of Q4 2019. As of this writing (April 1 2020 - start of Q2), the market has sold off, bounced, and now begins price exploration to the range lows. If I am right and price tests at least the range lows of our previous range, then we're in for an economic depression. And there's nothing to suggest that price cannot go below a 50% markdown. This is just a first target.
It is also important to note that fundamentals agree with the technicals. Jobless claims due to COVID-19 and the governments response are estimated to be many multiples higher than the 2008-2009 housing crisis. Further, the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates to near-zero. The economy is at a standstill. Also, investors are not buying long-term government bonds, as indicated by 30 and 50 year T bills rising dramatically. Note also that the market continues to drop as of this writing despite the Fed's massive liquidity stimilus. If the Fed (And the U.S. gov't) can't stimulate a rebound in the SP500/DJI with a 2.2T stimulus, then we're in for really hard times.
It is also important to note that fundamentals agree with the technicals. Jobless claims due to COVID-19 and the governments response are estimated to be many multiples higher than the 2008-2009 housing crisis. Further, the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates to near-zero. The economy is at a standstill. Also, investors are not buying long-term government bonds, as indicated by 30 and 50 year T bills rising dramatically. Note also that the market continues to drop as of this writing despite the Fed's massive liquidity stimilus. If the Fed (And the U.S. gov't) can't stimulate a rebound in the SP500/DJI with a 2.2T stimulus, then we're in for really hard times.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.