S&P500: (Fight) the Fed (Club)
Updated
"Don't fight the fed'. Why not? It's no secret this recent rally has been driven by politics and banks around the globe. In other markets too, we also saw a rally in equities... Didn't you also think "the stock market doesn't care"? I don't need to mention what's happening with money printing or oil or C*****, we all know it...
Now since I am not living in the US or have any more knowledge of what's happening over there, I'll keep to just commenting this stock index and what I think I am seeing concerning TA.
Concerning Technicals, I am yet waiting to see another low. As you guys know too, an uptrend is defined by higher highs and higher lows. So far we have seen, as I would say, 1.5 lows in this rally to the upside: The first one around the 0.5 retracement, and the second one just above the 1 retracement. I marked those on the chart. Now IMO the second low or the "half low" did not really prove to be a "good" or "full" low, as it was not really contested. In fact, by looking at what remains of the wedge we had through April, the second low marks the break of the wedge , which, in theory, should be the starting point of drop... Why did we not drop? Well, multiple reasons, some we already pointed out in the first paragraph. Secondly, technical analysis won't perfectly predict market movement everytime. Thirdly, it's also totally possible my previous analysis was just wrong... And there are lots of other factors. NVM, let's continue. IMO, this is not yet a strong uptrend! There's a couple of reasons I'd like to point out, why I think this way:
1. There hasn't yet been put in a new higher low that would further confirm this uptrend
2. We failed to break through resistance at the 1.618 retracement
3. 50 daily MA crossed below 400 daily MA days ago.
4. Price movement above 400 daily MA is a false breakout because of the 50 daily MA crossing below the 400. We haven't yet confirmed the 400 daily MA will hold as support.
What does it take to change my bearish perspective? A new higher low and a break of the 3000 point mark. After that, Shorts will get squeezed and valuations will get so high until you and me and Elon Musk go to Mars...
As always... love to hear your feedback and have a nice day!
Now since I am not living in the US or have any more knowledge of what's happening over there, I'll keep to just commenting this stock index and what I think I am seeing concerning TA.
Concerning Technicals, I am yet waiting to see another low. As you guys know too, an uptrend is defined by higher highs and higher lows. So far we have seen, as I would say, 1.5 lows in this rally to the upside: The first one around the 0.5 retracement, and the second one just above the 1 retracement. I marked those on the chart. Now IMO the second low or the "half low" did not really prove to be a "good" or "full" low, as it was not really contested. In fact, by looking at what remains of the wedge we had through April, the second low marks the break of the wedge , which, in theory, should be the starting point of drop... Why did we not drop? Well, multiple reasons, some we already pointed out in the first paragraph. Secondly, technical analysis won't perfectly predict market movement everytime. Thirdly, it's also totally possible my previous analysis was just wrong... And there are lots of other factors. NVM, let's continue. IMO, this is not yet a strong uptrend! There's a couple of reasons I'd like to point out, why I think this way:
1. There hasn't yet been put in a new higher low that would further confirm this uptrend
2. We failed to break through resistance at the 1.618 retracement
3. 50 daily MA crossed below 400 daily MA days ago.
4. Price movement above 400 daily MA is a false breakout because of the 50 daily MA crossing below the 400. We haven't yet confirmed the 400 daily MA will hold as support.
What does it take to change my bearish perspective? A new higher low and a break of the 3000 point mark. After that, Shorts will get squeezed and valuations will get so high until you and me and Elon Musk go to Mars...
As always... love to hear your feedback and have a nice day!
Note
pretty bold I know... but I had to...have a nice weekend
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