I hope everybody had a great start into the new year!
As I briefly discussed in my last post - the dreaded JPM trade was pretty much a non-event like also OPEX, as volatility declined for a variety of reasons, including the absence of big wall street firms during the last days of the year.
Seasonality tells us that implied volatility can be expected to fall to its lowest in the coming week, but should then pick up going into February. Generally, much will depend on the future path of inflation and how overvalued markets are going to react, in the next year.
Over the last 13 years or so, market participants have established a cult-like belief, that the central banks care much about them and would never remove their underlying put so to speak. But make no mistake - if "the system" has to choose between public unrest or a collapsing market, the decision will be easy. Something to reflect on while we move closer to a possibly drastic removal of accommodation..
As I briefly discussed in my last post - the dreaded JPM trade was pretty much a non-event like also OPEX, as volatility declined for a variety of reasons, including the absence of big wall street firms during the last days of the year.
Seasonality tells us that implied volatility can be expected to fall to its lowest in the coming week, but should then pick up going into February. Generally, much will depend on the future path of inflation and how overvalued markets are going to react, in the next year.
Over the last 13 years or so, market participants have established a cult-like belief, that the central banks care much about them and would never remove their underlying put so to speak. But make no mistake - if "the system" has to choose between public unrest or a collapsing market, the decision will be easy. Something to reflect on while we move closer to a possibly drastic removal of accommodation..
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.