SPX: Santa Claus Rally, Short Term Target 2.750
Updated
Die "Santa Claus Rally" ist ein saisonales Pattern, dass kurz vor Weihnachten beginnt und über den "Januar Effekt" bis in die ersten Handelswochen des Monats Januar reicht.
"A Santa Claus rally is a rise in stock prices in the month of December, generally seen over the final week of trading prior to the new year. The rally is generally attributed to anticipation of the January effect, an injection of additional funds into the market, and to additional trades which must, for accounting and tax reasons, be completed by the end of the year. Another reason for the rally may be fund managers "window dressing" their holdings with stocks that have performed well.
The Santa Claus rally is also known as the "December Effect" and was first recorded by Yale Hirsch in his Stock Traders Almanac in 1972."
Die US-TAX Reform ist beschlossen und verabschiedet worden. Erwartet wurden Gewinnmitnahmen respektive sell offs, die auf der "sell the facts" Theorie basieren. In den Kursen enthalten sind steigende Eearnings Per Share aufgrund sinkender Steuerbelastungen von aktuell 19 (non GAAP) auf 17,5. Noch nicht vollständig in den aktuellen Kursen enthalten dürften die Ausweitung der Aktienrückkaufprogramme sein. Im Jahr 2005 stieg das Volumen der Aktienrückkäufe um 85%, als im Rahmen des Homeland Investment Act die Steuern für im Ausland gehaltene Auslandsvermögen temporär auf 5,25% gesenkt wurden. Goldman Sachs hatte bereits letztes Jahr auf diesen Effekt hingewiesen. Tatsächlich stieg in den vergangenen vier Wochen das Volumen der angekündigten Aktienrückkaufprogramme sprunghaft an.
Ein dritter Effekt hat sich seit dem 20. Dezember 2017 addiert, der so vorher nicht erwartet wurde oder vorausgesehen wurde: US Unternehmen geben einen Teil der Steuerersparnisse aufgrund der US TAX Reform direkt an ihre Angestellten weiter
AT&T , Comcast giving $1,000 bonuses to hundreds of thousands of workers after tax bill cnbc.com/2017/12/20/tax-reform-reaction-att-is-giving-bonuses-to-200000-employees.html
This is just the start of companies handing out bonuses, raising wages and increasing spending cnbc.com/2017/12/20/this-is-just-the-start-of-companies-increasing-spending.html
Stocks open higher as some companies pledge to spend tax bill savings on higher wages, new construction cnbc.com/2017/12/20/this-is-just-the-start-of-companies-increasing-spending.html
Das US GDP wird zu 2/3 durch den Konsum generiert. Gewinnausschüttungen an Mitarbeiter wirken direkt auf das GDP und verbessernd damit letztendlich das Klima für die breiten US Aktienmärkte. Das Aufwärtsmomentum für den SPX 0.12% sollte sich weiter stabilisieren und nicht umkehren, wie dies gemäss der "sell the facts" Theorie hätte erfolgen sollen und so aktuell von Trader antizipiert wird. Das Aufwärtspotential für den S&P-500 Index sollte kurzfristig bis auf zumindest 2.750 Punkte reichen.
Trade active
SPX: Neues ATHTrade active
DJT: Neues ATHNote
DJT: Neues ATHNote
NDX: Rising wedge nach oben verlassen, ATHTrade active
S&P tops 2,700 for first time on tech gains, strong dataThe benchmark S&P 500 index surged past the 2,700-mark for the first time on Wednesday and other major indexes hit record intraday highs as technology stocks climbed amid indications of robust economic growth in the U.S. and overseas.
The technology sector was boosted by a rise in shares of Oracle (NYSE:ORCL), IBM (NYSE:IBM) and chipmakers. The index - the best-performing S&P 500 sector in 2017 with a 37-percent jump - was up 1.08 percent.
"Tech sector got beaten up right toward the end of the year and is seeing a rebound. It stands to benefit the least from the tax plan, but large caps that have the largest overseas holdings will benefit from ability to repatriate money," said Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW) in Austin, Texas.
A report showed U.S. factory activity increased more than expected in December, in a further sign of strong economic momentum at the end of 2017. Meanwhile, manufacturing surveys pointed to a strong start for the European economy.
The manufacturing data came ahead of the scheduled release of the Federal Reserve's minutes of its December policy meeting.
Investors are likely to scan the release for hints on rate tightening action in the coming months and the impact of the U.S. tax overhaul on the economy and inflation.
The odds of an interest rate hike in March jumped to 61.9 percent from 56.3 percent after the data, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool.
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stock-futures-rise-on-signs-of-strong-global-economic-growth-1056211
Note
FUNDAMENTAL DATA / MARKETSDow tops 25,000 on strong private hiring, global growth hopes
The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke above the 25,000 level for the first time on Thursday and other major indexes scaled new highs after strong U.S. private jobs data added to upbeat sentiment following indications of robust growth globally. The 30-member blue-chip index crossed five 1,000-point marks in 2017, driven partly by President Donald Trump's pro-growth agenda and solid corporate earnings. The momentum carried into 2018, with the benchmark S&P index closing above 2,700 for the first time on Wednesday and the Nasdaq settling above 7,000 a day earlier."Every 1,000-point increment in the Dow is becoming less of a percent move. It's just another milestone," said Michael Antonelli, managing director, institutional sales trading at Robert W. Baird in Milwaukee.
"The point that people need to take is that the macro indicators are telling investors that world economies are doing really well."
World stocks also hit records, driven by strong manufacturing and services sector data in major economies. U.S. private employers stepped up hiring in December and planned layoffs by American-based companies fell sharply, pointing to sustained labor market strength.
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/dow-eyes-25000-on-signs-of-strong-global-growth-1061336
Trade active
psychologically important 25,000 mark for the first time in history. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 SPX, +0.40% and Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.18% hit records for the first three trading days of the year for the first time since 1964 and 1999, respectively.marketwatch.com/story/dow-closes-above-25000-for-first-time-as-equity-benchmarks-rattle-off-fresh-round-of-records-2018-01-04?mod=bnbh
Note
HISTORIC VIEW:The S&P 500 is poised to do something it hasn’t done since 1964
The U.S. stock market hasn’t just started 2018 off on a good footing, it has started it with what is by one standard the best out-of-the-gate performance in more than 50 years.
The S&P 500 SPX, +0.47% is up 0.4% on Thursday, and if it closes in positive territory, that will mean it has not only risen in each of the three trading sessions of 2018 thus far, but that it has closed at a record in each of them. The last time the benchmark index opened the year with three straight records was in 1964, when it achieved the feat in the first six sessions of the year, according to the WSJ Market Data Group.
The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.18% is also on pace for its third straight record of the new year. The last time the Nasdaq has accomplished this feat was in 1999, when, like the S&P, it hit records in the first six trading days of the year.
marketwatch.com/story/the-sp-500-is-poised-to-do-something-it-hasnt-done-since-1964-2018-01-04
Trade closed: target reached
Trade closed, target (almost) reached:Diese Trading Idea wird geschlossen, da das Kursziel (fast) erreicht ist. Dies ist keine Aussage zur weiteren Entwicklung des Marktes)
Trade closed: target reached
open @ 2.684,5close @ 2.746,5
------------------
net gain: 60,00 oder 600 pips
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.