The GOAT Returns - pt1: SPX to 4800
Updated
I've been away refining my method and have returned to deliver a series of important predictions for the coming weeks. The first is a look at the general market using S&P futures. Here is a summary of this chart:
** 2 key levels (above and below):
5163 was the breakdown level from back in April - a retest of this level for resistance is very bearish, but if it breaks back above it can continue higher to 5260 where it will run into even greater resistance (dashed green path)
5040 is an equilibrium level that needs to hold as support if bulls want to keep this afloat. A direct break below 5040 is bearish.
Expectation: A rejection at/around 5163 in the coming week OR a direct break below 5040 will initiate a selloff to 4800 by May 22nd, 2024. Depending on when we get either of the bearish signals outlined above, the earliest the drop to 4800 could occur is by 5/13/2024.
~We are completing a B-wave and the drop to 4800 will be the C wave in this corrective cycle off the April high. The extent of this B-wave will be determined by the parameters listed above (estimated B-wave will be from current peak 5140 to upper resistance 5260, 5140-5163 is the most likely)
~Major distribution over the past month. I'm out of all longs and waiting for my signal to enter short positions. Not Financial Advice.
** 2 key levels (above and below):
5163 was the breakdown level from back in April - a retest of this level for resistance is very bearish, but if it breaks back above it can continue higher to 5260 where it will run into even greater resistance (dashed green path)
5040 is an equilibrium level that needs to hold as support if bulls want to keep this afloat. A direct break below 5040 is bearish.
Expectation: A rejection at/around 5163 in the coming week OR a direct break below 5040 will initiate a selloff to 4800 by May 22nd, 2024. Depending on when we get either of the bearish signals outlined above, the earliest the drop to 4800 could occur is by 5/13/2024.
~We are completing a B-wave and the drop to 4800 will be the C wave in this corrective cycle off the April high. The extent of this B-wave will be determined by the parameters listed above (estimated B-wave will be from current peak 5140 to upper resistance 5260, 5140-5163 is the most likely)
~Major distribution over the past month. I'm out of all longs and waiting for my signal to enter short positions. Not Financial Advice.
Note
Currently testing 5163 for resistance, if we get the rejection here I'll be looking for confirmation to enter short with a break back below 5040.Note
I'm entering short here with puts for the following names:TXN, VRT, DPZ, MSFT, SPY
I want to see SPX500USD continue lower and drop below 5040 by 5/14 (next tuesday), once we get that break below 5040 I will add to my short positions.
Note
The reversal will begin this week, likely end of day today or tomorrow 5/15.- First leg down will drop it to 5100
- then small bounce to form lower high
- After that the major downside will begin with a direct hit to 4930 minimum (probably a lot lower)
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