Three drives on almost all timeframes...
Does the rally end this week? Check out the uncanny resemblance of this current wave to the structure of the final three drives wave 5 up in April right down to the time intervals between highs. Notice all the small three drives nested within each drive. What's even more interesting (and I never noticed this til now) is that if you keep going higher in wave degree, it looks like we're in the third drive on almost every wave, going all the way to the entire rally from the 2009 low... inferring that a complete collapse could be in the offing very soon.
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The monthly chart from Mar 2009 bottom...Note
The weekly chart from 2016 bottom, third drive of chart above...Note
The daily chart from Dec 2018 bottom, third drive of chart above...Note
Zooming in on the third drive here though it looks like we're only on the 2nd drive of what will probably be some kind of rising wedge. Time-wise, I don't expect this wave to complete until the new year.Note
Oops screwed up the start of that last drawing... here's the correct interpolation of how this wave could go. BTW fun fact: Since the August selloff, the past 15 Tuesdays have been red when Monday was a green candle.Note
Third drive coming up here on overnight futures pump to 3100+. Note: 1272 extension of entire 2018 selloff is at 3111. IMO we're too close to it to not test it. If not an hourly close below 3075 would IMO signal a new leg downward.Adding to short positions at 3100+. Already been buying TLT and VIX calls.
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lol 3100 pump right on cue. Sold off pretty hard off the small three drives but expecting another pump overnight to 3108-3110. Dumping all hedges there and going in short full bore. Otherwise again an hourly close below 3075 signifies a mew downtrend. The 1.272 extension of the 2018 selloff @ 3110 is major resistance, I don't expect to just blow throw it without some kind of giveback to around 3030 at least.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.