Bloody September? for OANDA:SPX500USD by chinawildman

Bloody September?

August is in the books and it looks like the bulls have won and the bears have gone into hiding. Trade talks are back on and everything's swell... right?

Not so fast... Bears should pay a great deal of attention of the all-important number of 2973:

1) 3rd wave of a flat is a motive 1-2-3-4-5 that retraces 1.236 of the 2nd wave @ 2973
2) Bearish gartley PRZ is at the .786 retrace of the entire move down @ 2973
3) Price tapped and bounced off the top end of current bear flag/channel @ 2973

If 2973 holds in the next 2 days, look for a move back down to 2900. It's also possible this is the start of another leg down if this does turn out to be a bear flag.

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Looking for any entry in the 2970s here. Bearish divergence is already obvious... The algos are gonna dump all their shares to the short stops being triggered in the morning and then this thing should start to keel over.

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Nice action at the close there today... looks like we're gonna paint wave iii overnight. If my wave count is right and we really have finished drawing the flat, then we're looking at futures doing something like down then up overnight.

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Seeing some pretty significant divergence on longer TFs now... It's currently in a small wedge that I expect to resolve to the downside early this wk. The orange dotted line at 2950 you see is the 13WMA which has been tracing the median line I've using as resistance to short in August. The .382 retrace of the current leg up is also around there. Should see a retest there this wk, and IMO makes for a good scalping opp as well assuming whatever news brought it down wasn't catastrophic to trade.

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Will this be what sends us downward this wk? twitter.com/CNN/status/1170392306953936896

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Anatomy of a triple top... I'm looking for us to be rangebound between the May and July highs leading up to the fed meeting. My guess is we retest 2950 first half of this wk, and run back up towards the ATH leading up the FOMC meeting.... at which point you owe it to yourself to sell the potential triple top.

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Might still take a trip down to 2955 where there is huge support, but I closed most puts this morning. Still leaving some long term way OTMs for kicks since I believe this charade will still come crashing down soon, but I think this trash should rally leading to the FOMC meeting next wk.

At 2950-2955 I'm buying with both hands.

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LOL as suspected classic "handle and cup" double top coming up... Looking probably at a retrace to 3000+ prior to FOMC meeting.

Important to note: If the index cannot make a new high AFTER the Fed meeting and it sells off after the meeting, that's a dead giveaway that we're heading back down, and probably back down hard.

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No surprise here... starting to scale out of longs as it completes this inv H&S. There is a tasty little bearish butterfly setup at 3000 but I think that's only going to be the appetizer for what I believe will be a cascade of selling next week and going into october.

Same gameplan from bloody August applies here... cherrypick the top w/ way OTM Oct puts if you must but be prepared to go heavy w shorts if/when this thing fails to make a higher high than the ATH and sells off after FOMC. Even if we make a higher ATH I still expect at least a correction to the 13WMA in the upcoming wks.

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Dumped most longs and added some puts for today on the parabolic move... Still think this goes higher so quick trading position here, may buy back long for the inevitable double/triple top.

TBH the index is prolly the worst thing to short atm. I think the Treasury's been manipulating bonds to ease the inversion and it's been propping up the indices. There are some good stocks to short like the momentum growth stocks that have recently sold off as well as several underperformers that look like they're about to start another leg down. For instance all FANGs are still well in bear flag territory for the extent of this "rally".

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Scalped some more longs on the small pullback and dumped them on the ridiculous ramp up into close... went into the butterfly PRZ so took some puts for kicks to see if we're actually capable of drawing a wave 4 here. Almost everybody universally believes we will retest ATHs at this point... which is exactly what the MMs intend. I suspect there will be no shortage of buyers as we repeatedly attempt to test the ATH while big money dumps those bags leading up to the FOMC meeting.

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Currently sitting in what I believe to be wave C of 4 which happens to be a flat. Should conclude somewhere in the 2995-3000 area. A break below 2985 would technically break the current motive wave and imply that the rally's over. I'd be VERY bearish if that happened, but I don't think it will prior to the FOMC meeting and I still think we have a wave 5 to be drawn.

The more likely scenario is that we finish painting the flat and make another attempt at the ATH with a wave 5 on Friday. My gut feeling is that they'll just park it up there to end RTH and let the events of the wknd dictate where we wind up next week. Make no mistake the technicals are saying we pull back in the upcoming weeks either way, it's just a matter of where that pullback starts.

chinawildman

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chinawildman