Short

SPX Santa Rally? Interesting Fractal Prediction.

Updated

So I went back to 2018 on SPX around this same time of year and noticed a similar pattern forming. Last week, with the FED, I pulled another fractal that played perfectly. With all the FED news coming to roost over the past 2 weeks with tapering, hikes, hawkish etc. this move makes sense as well. I've been waiting for some sort of catalyst for us to get a pull back and this may well be it.

1 of 2 things can happen here:

- We chop on the daily and push back up around the 4700 area for a final rejection and get the pull back shown here back into 4260-4200.

- Or we get the same bounce here this week back into 4700 and just continue higher.

Based upon the fractal I pulled today option #1 is what will playing out. But, this market over the past month or so has been hard to call more than a week out. So we are going to have to give this some time and see what plays out.

Be safe out there.

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Option 3 as always is we just roll over here. But I don't think that is likely. Just wanted to make sure I put that out there as well.

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Remember with fractals..they don't have to play EXACTLY where they are on the chart. You can see we could have chopped for a few more days, and we still can, but we are already seeing the retracement back to the upside today. This could really start catching momentum as shorts scramble to cover and thus creates a short squeeze. I'm still potentially looking for that rejection at the top of the range again (4700-4720) for a larger pull back. So far so good.

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This retracement back to the upside makes sense since we had an insane amount of shorts over the past 2 weeks and the market wont let them have it that easily..yet.

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Chug chug back up to the 4700 area..its coming quicker than I thought it would. We might put the top in by the end of the week (if in fact that is a short).

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Alright here we are at the point where this could roll over again..lets see what happens into next week :)

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currently sitting at the last order block here..

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And blast off haha! Not unusual given the trend and the fact we continue to make new highs over the past year. The last part of this idea, at this point, is a pull back after this week into the 1st of the year. If that does not happen this short pattern here would be invalid.

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Whelp this is it...if we are going to get a pull back this is where it would be..I have readjusted the fractal accordingly..If this is to still play out into the first week of Jan. Lets see what happens!

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Alright so the pull back is still in play here. I have adjusted the fractal accordingly. This pattern will be invalid (for now) if we trade back above the 4720 area on SPX500.

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And that was the bulk of the short I was looking for. Lets see if we can get 4300 still. I expect some sort of bounce this week and then maybe continue lower.

Trade closed: target reached

We hit 4300 and some and that was the move that I was looking for. Thanks for following!

TheTradeMentor

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