Outsmarting Your Opponent
Updated
Retail activity and strength is starting to transition towards excitement and complacency, when this happens Equities should be sold with confidence for a retest of the March lows.
📍 Here the following line appears the cleanest: 3240/50 => 2640/50 => 2060/70 and Sellers are not particularly favourable. The retail crowd are piling into longs and even some of the large names are flip-flopping. This is a good example of the 'end game' in an economic cycle, volatility expands to historic levels and there is no room for emotion.
Here we are going to start to see VIX lead the way and direct the Global Equity flows in a violent struggle to the downside. I can only recommend that those who managed to catch their slice of the pie on these difficult legs higher start to unwind, while those who are actively looking for more pain - start to position accordingly.
A good plan now would be seize the hotly contest 10,500 in NQ which will open up the central battlefield:
I really like the above diagram, although there was at this point a chance buyers would tactically run stops with additional fiscal stimulus. This is of course more the logical move, because Uncle Sam and the Whitehouse generosity is losing tempo, meaning that the downside is ripe for a swift invasion!
For those who remember the moves in DAX, there is no doubt that the complacent environment in Q1 is completely the same in Q3.
Buyers are going to commit the strategic error of going overboard thinking that 'stonks only go up' ...while Keynsians economics is reaching the final stages as we witness in real-time that supply chains and demand are not set up in such a way that covid and lockdowns means turn the printers on full and business as usual society will resume. It is only making the inevitable a lot lot worse, Oct Puts look very attractive.
Sellers to move. Ask yourself how should we punish our opponent for having been so complacent during his last few months?
As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
📍 Here the following line appears the cleanest: 3240/50 => 2640/50 => 2060/70 and Sellers are not particularly favourable. The retail crowd are piling into longs and even some of the large names are flip-flopping. This is a good example of the 'end game' in an economic cycle, volatility expands to historic levels and there is no room for emotion.
Here we are going to start to see VIX lead the way and direct the Global Equity flows in a violent struggle to the downside. I can only recommend that those who managed to catch their slice of the pie on these difficult legs higher start to unwind, while those who are actively looking for more pain - start to position accordingly.
A good plan now would be seize the hotly contest 10,500 in NQ which will open up the central battlefield:
I really like the above diagram, although there was at this point a chance buyers would tactically run stops with additional fiscal stimulus. This is of course more the logical move, because Uncle Sam and the Whitehouse generosity is losing tempo, meaning that the downside is ripe for a swift invasion!
For those who remember the moves in DAX, there is no doubt that the complacent environment in Q1 is completely the same in Q3.
Buyers are going to commit the strategic error of going overboard thinking that 'stonks only go up' ...while Keynsians economics is reaching the final stages as we witness in real-time that supply chains and demand are not set up in such a way that covid and lockdowns means turn the printers on full and business as usual society will resume. It is only making the inevitable a lot lot worse, Oct Puts look very attractive.
Sellers to move. Ask yourself how should we punish our opponent for having been so complacent during his last few months?
As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
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