S&P 500 Could face a serious trouble
Updated
From bottom to top SP500 received almost 95%, optimism could be observed across capital markets including cryptocurrencies.
From my point of view, it is possible to observe several signs of potential threats that can be validated over days or even weeks.
First of all I would like to point out triple bearish divergence on WEEKLY timeframe . In this case I would look for a potential break down and then retest back the trendline. For me it would mean a small '' breath in '' before a possible crash. Also 1,618 was hit (size of correction movement back in 03/2020). If you look at past crisises these levels were everytime hard to break up, and corections were often.
Secondly VIX seems so ready to shoot, validation of trendline is real and for me potential minimum target is around 33 points. More in screen:
Gold and TLT might reached possibly their bottoms, since these could work as hedge - makes sense some investors rotate to these instruments. On TLT graph you can see an increase in volume , and also TLT / JNK broke the trendline from 03/2020
Gold and Silver YTD haven't reached some nice profits yet in contrast, other commodities did. Gold seems ready to potential breakout.
And finally the irrationality on cryptocurrencies reaching full new dimensions (doge, shiba, elonsperm etc ..) - Everyone has crypto and its so easy to profit from that. Reminds me 2017 so much and history tells that when BTC reached new all time high, there is space for ETH, LTC and other altcoins to reach their new ATHs. Everytime BTC moved sidewaves - theoretically for distribution purposes. So for me this is the sign of a peak of bulltrend.
Overall the break on SP500 would possibly strand for validation this idea otherwise its irrelevant.
From my point of view, it is possible to observe several signs of potential threats that can be validated over days or even weeks.
First of all I would like to point out triple bearish divergence on WEEKLY timeframe . In this case I would look for a potential break down and then retest back the trendline. For me it would mean a small '' breath in '' before a possible crash. Also 1,618 was hit (size of correction movement back in 03/2020). If you look at past crisises these levels were everytime hard to break up, and corections were often.
Secondly VIX seems so ready to shoot, validation of trendline is real and for me potential minimum target is around 33 points. More in screen:
Gold and TLT might reached possibly their bottoms, since these could work as hedge - makes sense some investors rotate to these instruments. On TLT graph you can see an increase in volume , and also TLT / JNK broke the trendline from 03/2020
Gold and Silver YTD haven't reached some nice profits yet in contrast, other commodities did. Gold seems ready to potential breakout.
And finally the irrationality on cryptocurrencies reaching full new dimensions (doge, shiba, elonsperm etc ..) - Everyone has crypto and its so easy to profit from that. Reminds me 2017 so much and history tells that when BTC reached new all time high, there is space for ETH, LTC and other altcoins to reach their new ATHs. Everytime BTC moved sidewaves - theoretically for distribution purposes. So for me this is the sign of a peak of bulltrend.
Overall the break on SP500 would possibly strand for validation this idea otherwise its irrelevant.
Note
IMHO i see weaking of the structure that might take some time to validate itselft. Nevertheless I would say minimum target 3950, ideal 3850 to retest important levels and build them as a strong supportNote
CBOE options also breaking the structureNote
The most positive bullish scenario i can find:Note
Bullish or Bearish - thats THE Questionwe might see strong quick recovery, but overall till bearish divergence is not invalid and we are under the long trendline we are bearish from my perspective. :) Lets see what will bring next week :)
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Note
Defended RSI and bounce up, there might be possible move up to test triple bearish divergence trend line - seems as a postponed dip, but still valid.Note
Potencial gartley SP500
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