Short

$SPX Fake Out - Has Yet To Reach Full Extension On Sell

Updated

Once price creates a new low that extends past the 0% fib extension, you would expect it the have a mirror of price reach, not necessarily price action. The original trade set forth was the new high as being the bottom and the beginning of the explosion being the full length of the trade. I has reached that and has barely made any moves under it. It was a very slow day. I personally see a fake out coming. As the price reaches upwards into the breaker, maybe near the 50% of the original fib is when we'll see the down shift and probably toward the full 200%, Asymmetrical, extension. The full extension would also cross equal lows that create a façade of support but into another bullish breaker that it may not push below the next low. Probably land somewhere in the middle maybe? I've taken a look at all time frames and I believe the rise up into the sell will happen rapidly leaving the body of candle below somewhat current conditions to create a strong resistance point. You also have to take into consideration of the CRB index which seems to be turning as well. If the commodities start going lower with a higher dollar value, stocks are likely to decrease with bonds. And that's what I feel like I'm seeing. The banks want your money and they'll take it any way they can. So beware if your thinking "New High!" ... That's not something I'd be comfortable putting my money on. Watch the Asian session closely and see what kind of reaction London session makes. It could be a quick strike in the middle of the night or one that happens at the open of market. But I see a lot of posts with analysis suggesting a new high. And I just don't see it. But those are my thoughts and that's just me. I'm just some dude.

Note

So far the resting area through the asian session is correct. Between all previous daily highs broken.

Note

Where this trade current stands in the Asian range is that if it were to pull back to the 70.5% fib level from the low to the high, it would land exactly on a previously daily low. You could then buy this trade going into the London Session as it reaches for the 100%-127% extensions which just so happen to nearly overlap the bearish breaker and bearish orderblock that I'm projected will be the continuation sell. (See here for chart)

Note

It's inching closer to the entry. I expect a spike at NY open then a sharp decline. But we'll see.

Note

Update. I just noticed, in hindsight, yesterday's Optimal Trade Entry that happened around 12:30 for the buy around 3530. The double Extension of that buy comes in around my Entry 2 for the current sell. Equal highs just formed, which is a good thing, you should see price try to reach higher and snap back to triger buy stops and take them out. This might be a long developing trade. I have 3 possible entries, the lowest being at 3595 which has been my original entry for this trade. I see another higher one possible, between 3612-3617. And the last possible effort before It reaches by SL is the bearish order block at 3623. There is one more entry that I haven't considered in this trade because I think it's highly unlikely, but it could be at 3656.4 where there's an uncontested breaker. That would be the ultimate fake-out. We shall see.

Note

Well, I was absolutely right about it breaking those equal highs and pulling back.

Note

In all of this price action apparatus, there was 1 breaker I discounted and missed. And price just hit it and it's bouncing off that one. It's looking as if now maybe the sell

Note

At 3582.6

Note

Digging into the 1 min Chart, equal lows were just created. Sell Stop added for a few points as it should blow through that when going back down.

Note

Digging in to the apparatus on the 1 minute chart, I think the best likely sell comes at 3602 the highest, uncontested breaker.

Note

I got a few good points out of that sell stop before it hit a bullish order block in which I closed the trade. There are two more below it, it's going to have a tough time getting through them without some force. I believe that force will come from the price action above.

Note

The struggle in price action on the way up has paved the way for the fall. I just noticed it came back up after going through the equal lows mention and hit a bearish breaker.

Note

Fake bounce, wait for the real bounce 3556.4

Note

It bounced just a little higher than I called above. But I saw the equal lows and knew it was a fake bounce and it would go lower. I believe it is done selling off for the time being. If it does, I have the areas marked in Gold as to where it could sell to and the blue above which could bring it back down. I still think the entry of 3602 is the best possible entry.

Note

Well it did bounce back up to the blue lines that I suspected it would sell off from and bounce at the gold lines where the order blocks are. I did catch some sells on the way down but I didn't hold long enough because I was still anticipating a bounce up. Now there's an breaker holding price in just below the order blocks and it looks like this could continue selling off without reaching my original entry. We shall see.

Note

Left side of chart price action

Note

As it bounced through those Areas I plotted. We should see a return at least to breaking the previous daily highs above the current high at 3589. But ultimately I think it will reach 3602 before a larger retracement. S/L should be about 6213. If it get's high than than, it has the potential to go much higher. And that is within the day.

Note

It's looking Bearish Today, current equal lows, with the previous low not far out of reach. Much closer than yesterday's high. We could be looking at a down first half of the day.

Note

If it get's below 3556 then it should go down to 3553.

Note

I think it's going to start buying now.

Note

3528 - 3529

Note

Well I got a few long scalps in but it turning bearish again. Probably heading for the lows and lower.

Note

There are equal lows at 3526, watch it to break them

Note

Price action is very Bearish, if it is to buy look for a bounce at any of these levels marked in Gold

Note

IT'S ABOUT TO START BUYING THROUGH THOSE HIGHS.

Note

There are some spots it can retrace back to but I see it hitting 3587 soon

Note

Nope, fake out breakout.

Note

Well... it's collecting a lot of orders. Some thinknig resistance sell, some thinking breakout buy. It would be wise to sit out any decision right now until the market speaks.

Note

We're getting close to the sell entry. Getting prepared to hold over the weekend if need be.

Note

3595 Safe Entry, 3602 Risky Entry

Note

Kissed the entry

Note

It's been retracing but there's still some time before close that it could burst even higher. And if I know how SPX works, it'll blow up when you least expect it.

BodiesXWix

You're either trading with Smart Money Theory or your just burning your money money. Believe me, I've been there.

Also on:

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.