FRACTAL INTACT - small scale 8/19-8/21
I have been tracking fractal structures in the S&P500 over tiny, small, medium, large, and very large time frames. I have not posted any ideas on fractals in some time, but the latest fractal occurred 8/19-8/21. For the best visualization zoom into the 5 minute time frame. For corresponding fractal patterns at all scales you can review my past ideas, and below is the 10-year fractal pattern.
The fractal pattern is the same at all scales it just has not fully played out on for the large scale in 2020. We can see these same patterns over and over at the minute, hourly, daily, weekly, and yearly scales. They are all building blocks telling a story what the bigger structure will look like in a few weeks to a few months.
Sequence & Key Features of the Fractal Pattern
Build up with blow off top.
Crash in Impulse (12345 Elliot Wave ) to significant lows.
Initial impulse up (12345 Elliot Wave ) with higher highs to start the rally.
Correction in a sideways channel about mid way through the rally (ABC Elliot Wave , ABCDE Elliot Wave , or one move down).
Note: this correction mostly shows up between Fibonacci levels, mostly between 0.5 and 0.618.
Impulse up again (12345 Elliot Wave ) to the highs.
Note: the last leg is generally very impulsive.
Reversal pattern (single-top or double-top or triple-top or head-shoulders)
Note: highly likely at a Fibonacci level relative to the initial top
Correct sharply down to maybe a Fibonacci level or resistance level .
Try to recover from the sharp correction.
Move down toward the lows with 1 of 3 methods.
(a) Sharp 12345 Elliot Wave .
(b) WXYXZ Elliot Wave followed by a gradual grind down.
(c) Oscillate near, but below, the reversal levels, then gradually grind down.
Hit some type of bottom and gyrate, generally with an ABC Elliot Wave .
Start the process over.
What is a fractal?
Fractals occur in nature sea shells, brocolli, ferns, lightning, tree branches, snowflakes, rocks and mountains, and the HUMAN BRAIN. The human brain is made up of axons and dendrites at various scales, i.e. fractals. The human brain is designed/evolved just like everything else in the universe. When the universe finds an optimal process to build a single simple unit, it reuses that template and process to replicate more and more units to build more complex structures. So if the human brain is nothing more than a fractal it makes sense that human behavior can come out in fractals especially in deep emotions like fear and greed, i.e. the stock market.
I believe this particular fractal pattern happening at all scales over various time frames are building blocks building the 2020 fractal structure that will ultimately emerge. I believe we are near the reversal top, but a little unsure on the timing of it. In the S&P500 I can see a massive head-shoulders forming which has a left should in early june, a head forming right now, and the right should once a moderate correction occurs, then the bigger move toward the march lows. That is my belief based on not just these fractal patterns, but various technical analysis. I have analyzed using Elliot Waves, Fibonacci, Harmonics, and various indicators. I also believe many of the technicals and patterns that we should be seeing are getting warped in time and price action because of the liquidity of the Fed, and prolonging the inevitable. I am following other markets that I believe will give us an early indication when the major indices will correct, AAPL, DJI transports, IWM, DJI financials. AAPL with a 125% growth since march low and 250% in 18 months, may have a few more points to run, but it is reaching an extended 5th leg at a Fibonacci level and mega-tech slowing down. I believe AAPL's correction will move other markets.
Fractal 10-20 years ago
The fractal pattern is the same at all scales it just has not fully played out on for the large scale in 2020. We can see these same patterns over and over at the minute, hourly, daily, weekly, and yearly scales. They are all building blocks telling a story what the bigger structure will look like in a few weeks to a few months.
Sequence & Key Features of the Fractal Pattern
Build up with blow off top.
Crash in Impulse (12345 Elliot Wave ) to significant lows.
Initial impulse up (12345 Elliot Wave ) with higher highs to start the rally.
Correction in a sideways channel about mid way through the rally (ABC Elliot Wave , ABCDE Elliot Wave , or one move down).
Note: this correction mostly shows up between Fibonacci levels, mostly between 0.5 and 0.618.
Impulse up again (12345 Elliot Wave ) to the highs.
Note: the last leg is generally very impulsive.
Reversal pattern (single-top or double-top or triple-top or head-shoulders)
Note: highly likely at a Fibonacci level relative to the initial top
Correct sharply down to maybe a Fibonacci level or resistance level .
Try to recover from the sharp correction.
Move down toward the lows with 1 of 3 methods.
(a) Sharp 12345 Elliot Wave .
(b) WXYXZ Elliot Wave followed by a gradual grind down.
(c) Oscillate near, but below, the reversal levels, then gradually grind down.
Hit some type of bottom and gyrate, generally with an ABC Elliot Wave .
Start the process over.
What is a fractal?
Fractals occur in nature sea shells, brocolli, ferns, lightning, tree branches, snowflakes, rocks and mountains, and the HUMAN BRAIN. The human brain is made up of axons and dendrites at various scales, i.e. fractals. The human brain is designed/evolved just like everything else in the universe. When the universe finds an optimal process to build a single simple unit, it reuses that template and process to replicate more and more units to build more complex structures. So if the human brain is nothing more than a fractal it makes sense that human behavior can come out in fractals especially in deep emotions like fear and greed, i.e. the stock market.
I believe this particular fractal pattern happening at all scales over various time frames are building blocks building the 2020 fractal structure that will ultimately emerge. I believe we are near the reversal top, but a little unsure on the timing of it. In the S&P500 I can see a massive head-shoulders forming which has a left should in early june, a head forming right now, and the right should once a moderate correction occurs, then the bigger move toward the march lows. That is my belief based on not just these fractal patterns, but various technical analysis. I have analyzed using Elliot Waves, Fibonacci, Harmonics, and various indicators. I also believe many of the technicals and patterns that we should be seeing are getting warped in time and price action because of the liquidity of the Fed, and prolonging the inevitable. I am following other markets that I believe will give us an early indication when the major indices will correct, AAPL, DJI transports, IWM, DJI financials. AAPL with a 125% growth since march low and 250% in 18 months, may have a few more points to run, but it is reaching an extended 5th leg at a Fibonacci level and mega-tech slowing down. I believe AAPL's correction will move other markets.
Fractal 10-20 years ago
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