The question over the next 2 days will be is this move up real or not.
First, let's look at the position things are in now.
1.Seasonality is very bullish around this time
2. Technicals are oversold and market bounced off some solid supports.
3. Earnings season is about to begin, and in my experience you usually don't see that market crashing in the middle of earning season..
So those are the 3 reasons to want to be long.
Now
look at Spy weekly chart, Zoom out to 2016 and then add your weekly 50ma; what you'll notice is that in every serious correction the Spy has suffered since 2016 the bear market only ends when Spy can close the week back above the Weekly 50ma
The weekly 50ma is currently at
565 , throw in the gap close at 565 and the price action resistance and you got a power line of resistance
I would exit any longs near this area here. We may not knife back down extreme but we could shop and trade between 540-565 and in a extreme bear scenario the short back to 400.00 after rounding off a right shoulder with a couple of weeks of consolidation
But that's an extreme bear scenario and the only reason I'm entertaining it is because what I see on the
DJI and 
NYA
Here'sNYA weekly chart
This is probably the biggest rising wedge you'll ever see. Dating back 15yrs , if this was to fall out this would mark the end of the bull run from 2009.
Zoomed in
And you'll see that the weekly 50ma and the prior Wyckoff neck are at the same spot which makes this a power line resistance! I don't expect this to make it back across and I'd be looking at a major short entry here that should coincide with spy tagging its weekly 50ma
DJI
Exact same chart as NYA
Zoomed in , same scenario as NYA
XLK
The biggest sector on
SPY and a leading indicator on Tech is showing same thing
Weekly chart (Log scale)
So the bad news is in the coming weeks, I think we will be tested and this rally may be a bull trap that stalls out at the weekly 50ma. The good news for bulls is we may have another 3-4% pump before we have to bail 😂..
But first Spy needs to break over 553 or 20sma..
Over 553 and it's a 80% chance 565 comes next. Until then 552-537 is chop so ignore any pullback unless we break back below 525
Personally I think we have enough juice to tag 567 by end of next week.
Remember 537-550 is chop and don't look too much into it
If spy closes any week back above 565 then it's a 75% chance we are headed back to 600...
Let's see what happens
First, let's look at the position things are in now.
1.Seasonality is very bullish around this time
2. Technicals are oversold and market bounced off some solid supports.
3. Earnings season is about to begin, and in my experience you usually don't see that market crashing in the middle of earning season..
So those are the 3 reasons to want to be long.
Now
look at Spy weekly chart, Zoom out to 2016 and then add your weekly 50ma; what you'll notice is that in every serious correction the Spy has suffered since 2016 the bear market only ends when Spy can close the week back above the Weekly 50ma
The weekly 50ma is currently at
565 , throw in the gap close at 565 and the price action resistance and you got a power line of resistance
I would exit any longs near this area here. We may not knife back down extreme but we could shop and trade between 540-565 and in a extreme bear scenario the short back to 400.00 after rounding off a right shoulder with a couple of weeks of consolidation
But that's an extreme bear scenario and the only reason I'm entertaining it is because what I see on the
DJI and NYAHere's
NYA weekly chart This is probably the biggest rising wedge you'll ever see. Dating back 15yrs , if this was to fall out this would mark the end of the bull run from 2009.
Zoomed in
And you'll see that the weekly 50ma and the prior Wyckoff neck are at the same spot which makes this a power line resistance! I don't expect this to make it back across and I'd be looking at a major short entry here that should coincide with spy tagging its weekly 50ma
DJIExact same chart as NYA
Zoomed in , same scenario as NYA
XLK The biggest sector on
SPY and a leading indicator on Tech is showing same thingWeekly chart (Log scale)
So the bad news is in the coming weeks, I think we will be tested and this rally may be a bull trap that stalls out at the weekly 50ma. The good news for bulls is we may have another 3-4% pump before we have to bail 😂..
But first Spy needs to break over 553 or 20sma..
Over 553 and it's a 80% chance 565 comes next. Until then 552-537 is chop so ignore any pullback unless we break back below 525
Personally I think we have enough juice to tag 567 by end of next week.
Remember 537-550 is chop and don't look too much into it
If spy closes any week back above 565 then it's a 75% chance we are headed back to 600...
Let's see what happens
Note
Alright so we gapped down.. let me start with the vix on why I think they will Buy the dip todayThis is the vix 1hour chart (Log scale)
Double to showing, unless the push back above 40.00 they will buy the market up.. and push vix down to 30.00 and below
As you can see it's been fighting at that Double top neckline all morning..
Above 40.00 and they will pump this back to 50 minimum and the market will dump..
But the Double top target is 21.48 gap close
But we will have some levels below 30.00 and 27.00 to cut through first
Note
As far as I'm concerned this is just a reaction of tagging the 21ema yesterday for Qqq. what ever the direction the market is going (up or down) there is usually a reaction when first test of the 21 or 20 ma. lots of volume came in yesterday and I don't think they dump itNote
So here's SPY 15min.. I think we can tag 548-550 by tomorrow as long as 535 holds early. Yellow lines - channel
Purple line - if we break below 530 we head back to 525
White line - 536 gap support
For me to open puts, I'd have to see 2 things
SPY break back below 530.00 and Vix spike back above 40.00 otherwise they will buy this up.Below 530 and the target is 525. Lots of volume came in to push this over 525 so I expect buyers there and then maybe Cup and handle
Note
QQQ 15 min chart... if they break back below 450.00 they will go for the 442 retest.. possible Cup and handle.. but it's death for the market if qqq break back below 440Note
Becareful shorting SPY above 525..I think they will buy this up.. too much volume came in to push this above 525.00.
But the 15-30min still lover ought from yesterday's squeeze so they may chop for awhile to cool off..
Bearish only below 525, otherwise 550 next up
Note
Spy below 525 and 515 is next stop. Below 515 and 505 comes.. long back over 526
Note
Core PPI tomorrow premarket + Banke earnings. Should lead to a big gap .. I'm leaning upwards for the gap but I'm not swinging anything. I will most likely play the aftermath of the bank earnings ..Catch you'll later ✌️
Note
No crying in the casino!!
As long as the market opens up above 518.00 then I'd consider this channel still at play and 550 then 565 will come. But if we open up below 510 or drop below 510 intra day then we short it back down to 492-494.
No V shape recoveries and no easy trades. I was never in the camp of 620-650 and I'm still not but we've made 3 consecutive higher lows and until that changes I'm expecting another higher low. Bear markers aren't easy trade, if you are losing , try scalping and buy more ITM
Note
Vix 30min chart Lower highs in the shape of a bullflag.. could be distribution though In a perfect day tomorrow we'd see this play out on the vix and a pullback to 27 or bottom of this flag which would allow the market to pump higher
Vix zoomed out ..
Note
Note
SPY 30min chartBelow 515 and short it to 510
Above 530 and long it to 536
Everything else is chop
Note
SPY opening up between 550-555 is no man's land..3 Reasons
550 - 20sma daily
553 - 1hour 200sma
555 - bear market trendline
Note
Soooo....SPY 30min chart535-540 is chop!
Over 540 and and 546 is next.
Below 533 and 525 comes..
I still think this route has a chance to play out 565 then we continue this correction to 460 next
Note
So... Vix bounced off 30 support...Qqq rejected 20sma..
If Spy closes back below 533 then bears have the ball and we are headed back lower
Note
Vix 1hour back to 40
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.