Pre-market is an exciting time when you start looking at your screens to check what's going on. There is a lot of information to consume: news, reports, charts... you can continue the list. In this study, we explore if price movement in pre-market can provide any indications of what the day is going to look like.
There are 3 setups we tested from 2015 to 2022
Trading Conditions
The Results:
Most of the time when it's down in pre-market it tends to rebound. It's well known that bulls run by night and seem like tend to buy the lows if the early hours didn't work out.
2015:
Down 1%: Gain 3.42%, Win/Loss 2/3
Up 1%: Gain -2.56%, Win/Loss 1/1
Flat: Gain -5.9%, Win/Loss 37/42
2016:
Down 1%: Gain 1.26%, Win/Loss 2/1
Up 1%: Gain 2.66%, Win/Loss 2/1
Flat: Gain -2.11%, Win/Loss 37/39
2017:
Down 1%: Gain 0%, Win/Loss 0/0
Up 1%: Gain 0%, Win/Loss 0/0
Flat: Gain 6.22%, Win/Loss 71/45
2018:
Down 1%: Gain 3.61%, Win/Loss 2/1
Up 1%: Gain -2.73%, Win/Loss 0/2
Flat: Gain -1.44%, Win/Loss 48/35
2019:
Down 1%: Gain 0.37%, Win/Loss 2/1
Up 1%: Gain 0.33%, Win/Loss 1/0
Flat: Gain 3.14%, Win/Loss 55/46
2020:
Down 1%: Gain 3.85%, Win/Loss 8/9
Up 1%: Gain -2.85%, Win/Loss 5/7
Flat: Gain -3.02%, Win/Loss 39/27
2021:
Down 1%: Gain 0%, Win/Loss 0/0
Up 1%: Gain 1.4%, Win/Loss 2/0
Flat: Gain 1.13%, Win/Loss 35/34
2022:
Down 1%: Gain 1.25%, Win/Loss 1/1
Up 1%: Gain -3.26%, Win/Loss 0/2
Flat:Gain -2.61%, Win/Loss 2/2
Disclaimer: This post is for fun and educational purposes only with no attempt to beat buy and hold. Do not use this as trading/investment advice.
There are 3 setups we tested from 2015 to 2022
- Up 1%+ in pre-market
- Down 1%+ in pre-market
- Flat in pre-market (open and close are within 0.1%)
Trading Conditions
- $10,000 to trade daily
- Trading only
SPY - Buy at 9:30 if the condition is met
- Do not trade on early close days
The Results:
Most of the time when it's down in pre-market it tends to rebound. It's well known that bulls run by night and seem like tend to buy the lows if the early hours didn't work out.
2015:
Down 1%: Gain 3.42%, Win/Loss 2/3
Up 1%: Gain -2.56%, Win/Loss 1/1
Flat: Gain -5.9%, Win/Loss 37/42
2016:
Down 1%: Gain 1.26%, Win/Loss 2/1
Up 1%: Gain 2.66%, Win/Loss 2/1
Flat: Gain -2.11%, Win/Loss 37/39
2017:
Down 1%: Gain 0%, Win/Loss 0/0
Up 1%: Gain 0%, Win/Loss 0/0
Flat: Gain 6.22%, Win/Loss 71/45
2018:
Down 1%: Gain 3.61%, Win/Loss 2/1
Up 1%: Gain -2.73%, Win/Loss 0/2
Flat: Gain -1.44%, Win/Loss 48/35
2019:
Down 1%: Gain 0.37%, Win/Loss 2/1
Up 1%: Gain 0.33%, Win/Loss 1/0
Flat: Gain 3.14%, Win/Loss 55/46
2020:
Down 1%: Gain 3.85%, Win/Loss 8/9
Up 1%: Gain -2.85%, Win/Loss 5/7
Flat: Gain -3.02%, Win/Loss 39/27
2021:
Down 1%: Gain 0%, Win/Loss 0/0
Up 1%: Gain 1.4%, Win/Loss 2/0
Flat: Gain 1.13%, Win/Loss 35/34
2022:
Down 1%: Gain 1.25%, Win/Loss 1/1
Up 1%: Gain -3.26%, Win/Loss 0/2
Flat:Gain -2.61%, Win/Loss 2/2
Disclaimer: This post is for fun and educational purposes only with no attempt to beat buy and hold. Do not use this as trading/investment advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.